Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – November 07, 2023

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1. Just Amazon AWS Revenue was Higher than Revenue of 461 Companies in S&P 500

@Charlie Bilello Amazon’s AWS revenue over the last 12 months ($88 billion) was higher than the revenue of 461 companies in the S&P 500. From $3 billion to $88 billion in less than 10 years (>40% annualized growth).

Apple has bought back $604 billion in stock over the past 10 years, which is greater than the market cap of 492 companies in the S&P 500.

2. XLE Energy ETF Interesting Chart

XLE failed at 2 attempts to make new highs..then twice bounced off 200-day

3. Berskire Record Cash….Sold $5B in Stocks.

4. Dow Jones Railroads Holding Lows

5. Last Weeks Rally Led by Weakest Previous Performers.

Bespoke The rally this week has been broad based, but the best performing stocks have been the names that did the worst in the 10 days prior.  Below we’ve broken the large-cap Russell 1,000 into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on stock performance during the market’s decline from 10/17 to 10/27 (last Friday).  As shown, the decile of the worst performing stocks during the 10/17-10/27 pullback is averaging the strongest gains during this week’s rally.

Looking at individual stocks, below are the 30 best performing names this week in the Russell 1,000.  At the top of the list is Roku (ROKU), which is up more than 50%!  Another eight stocks are up more than 25% this week, including names like DoorDash (DASH), DraftKings (DKNG), Pinterest (PINS), Paramount (PARA), and Palantir (PLTR).  Other noteworthy stocks up big this week include Wayfair (W), Block (SQ), Avis (CAR), Warner Bros. (WBD), Coinbase (COIN), TopBuild (BLD), and even Peloton (PTON).

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/boomerang-bounce

6. ARKK Rallied +19% Last Week

7. Regioanl Banks KRE +13% Last Week

8. S&P Returns Around Election Years.

Capital Group-Patient investors who stay the course have often been rewarded. Since 1932, stocks have gained an average of 11.3% in the 12 months following the conclusion of the primaries (using May 31 as a proxy) compared to just 5.8% in similar periods of non-election years.

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/pdf/shareholder/MFGEBR-121-632421.pdf?sfid=1988901890&cid=81074122&et_cid=81074122&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=btn-LP-A1cta-advisor-b

9. MBA Applications at 7-Year Low

Bloomberg By Robb MandelbaumData Bloomberg Businessweek collected from highly ranked business schools in our survey indicates that applications to full-time MBA programs at most of those institutions have been falling since at least 2017, despite two good years during the pandemic. At least 17 of the top 26 programs have seen long-term application declines—which for most of them continued into 2023. (At press time, Columbia Business School had yet to publish data for its class of 2025. Berkeley’s Haas School of Business declined to provide application figures for the last two years.)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-06/best-business-schools-applications-to-top-mba-programs-fall?srnd=premium&sref=GGda9y2L

10. The U.S. Receives 1m Legal Immigrants Per Year….More than the Rest of World Combined.

Zero Hedge  Why Immigrants Came to the U.S. in 2021

New arrival data in a given year includes non-tourist visas, new arrival green cards, refugees, and asylees.

Each arrival falls under a broad class of admission:

  • Work: Includes visas for specialty occupations or temporary agricultural work, as well as new arrival green cards issued for employment.
  • School: Includes student visas and families of student visa recipients.
  • Family: Includes immigrant visas and new arrival green cards issued for relatives of American citizens.
  • Safety: Includes refugees and asylees, as well as immigrant visas and new arrival green cards issued for fears of safety or persecution.
  • Diversity: Entry through the Diversity Visa Program—also known as the “green card lottery”—which accepts applicants from countries with low numbers of immigrants in the previous five years.

In 2021, the United States saw 1.53 million new arrivals. Here’s how the arrivals break down by class and origin:

New arrivals for work were the largest cohort of entries to America, totaling 638,551 people or 41.8% of new arrivals. The majority came from neighboring Mexico, which accounted for 55% of incoming workers and was the largest single country of origin.

School and education saw 492,153 people 32.2% of new U.S. arrivals, with the majority coming from Asian countries. China had the most school-related entries into the U.S. out of individual countries, accounting for 19.0% of total school-related entries, followed by India at 17.4%.

Family entries to the U.S. comprised just 23.2% or under a quarter of incoming new arrivals. In these instances, the largest cohorts came from India (17.6% of family entrants) and Mexico (15.2% of family entrants).

Compared to the larger classifications above, safety (1.9% of total entrants) and diversity (0.9% of total entrants) accounted for significantly fewer U.S. arrivals. The countries with the most citizens seeking refuge or asylum were the Democratic Republic of the Congo (4,876 refugees) and Venezuela (1,596 asylees) respectively.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/why-do-people-immigrate-us

Topley’s Top 10 – November 06, 2023

Daily Top Ten No Comments

1. NVDA vs. AAPL

At 27 times projected earnings, Apple trades roughly in line with Nvidia. One company isn’t growing. One company is on fire. Investors can do the math. Barrons Eric J. Savitz  https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-nvidia-stock-price-tech-earnings-478083ec?mod=past_editions

2. Another Look at Small Cap vs. QQQ

Chart of the Day—Found at Abnormal Returns Blog www.abnormalreturns.com

Large cap tech stocks have been outperforming small caps for awhile now.

(allstarcharts.com)

3. By Far the Longest Drawdown in Bond History

4. Global Central Banks Already Cutting Rates.

5. Companies with Huge Cash Stockpiles.

6. Ryan Detrick Carson—Recession Not In Numbers Yet.

 7. Who Owns U.S. Debt 2023?  China Selling and Japan May Start Selling

https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/#:~:text=As%20a%20result%2C%20totals%20from%20January%202023%20are%20lower%20than%20reported.&text=As%20of%20January%202023%2C%20the,and%20Luxembourg%20(%24318%20billion).

8. U.S. Dropping as China Trade Partner

WJS Latin America, Africa and developing markets in Asia now account for 36% of overall Chinese trade, compared with 33% for its trade with the U.S., Europe and Japan, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Chinese customs data. As recently as last summer, that trio of advanced markets accounted for a larger share of Chinese trade. Write to Jason Douglas at jason.douglas@wsj.com and Tom Fairless at tom.fairless@wsj.com

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/economy-us-china-tariffs-trade-investment-1c58d24e?mod=itp_wsj

9. Growth of Home Schooling in U.S.

10. The Secret to Persuading Almost Anyone Comes Down to 4 Simple Words

Getting buy-in is all about creating the right expectations.

BY JASON ATEN, TECH COLUMNIST@JASONATEN

Getting someone to do a thing you want them to do is one of the most challenging things about interacting with other humans. We all have our own agendas and desires and they are often informed by our individual values and perception of the world around us. 

If you are in a job that involves persuading people–like sales, or leading a team–you know that one of the most important aspects of persuasion is creating the right expectations. If you want a person to do something, it’s helpful to start by getting buy-in from them, and expectations help to do just that.

For example, imagine you are sitting across the table from someone who is trying to figure out what to buy from you. For them, this is all new, and they’re having to make a series of decisions about whether all of the things you offer will be a good fit. You can see that they’re trying to sort through it all when you say, “Most of my customers…” followed by whatever it is that most of your customers choose.

“Most of my customers find that option ‘C’ gives them the flexibility they need, while scaling affordably as they grow.”

There’s a very simple reason this works. Most people want to be like most people, most of the time. That’s human nature. If someone is considering becoming your customer, they aren’t just buying a thing, they’re buying into the experience of being your customer. For them, knowing what that means creates expectations and makes them more comfortable. 

Look, even though they may say otherwise, most people don’t want to be unique. They want to be like the rest of your customers and you can help by telling them what that means. That is, after all, the entire point of almost all marketing–to tell a story about what it looks like to use a product or service.

There are, of course, a few important caveats. The first is that whatever comes after those four words have to be true. If you just make stuff up, it might persuade someone for a short time, but, eventually, it will become obvious that you lied. Not only will they not be persuaded, they won’t ever trust you again. It’s just not worth it.

This is important because it can be tempting to try this trick to persuade people to spend more or to choose something that isn’t in their best interests. That’s a different four-word phrase altogether: “Everyone is doing it.” The difference is, that’s about putting peer pressure on someone to do something for your own benefit. Again, it might work for a little while, but it will cost you your credibility. 

Second, this works best when the person you are persuading is making a decision to buy in. The key is that the person wants to be a part of the group, whether that’s your customers or your team. It’s not helpful to tell someone what all of your customers do if they aren’t in any way interested in being one of your customers.

Finally, those four words work even better when you follow them with an explanation of why. For example, “most of our clients choose option ‘C’ because it gives them the flexibility they need while allowing them to scale affordably,” gives your potential customer the information they need to see themself in that situation. 

Obviously, this doesn’t work for everyone. That’s why I say “almost anyone,” because there will always be someone who resists any attempt to conform to whatever is normal. That’s okay. When you find that it doesn’t work, it’s probably a good sign that that customer wasn’t a good fit anyway.

https://www.inc.com/jason-aten/the-secret-to-persuading-almost-anyone-comes-down-to-4-simple-words.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=freeform

Topley’s Top 10 – November 03, 2023

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1. Magnificent 7 Comparable Valuations.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • The PEG ratio enhances the P/E ratio by adding expected earnings growth into the calculation.
  • The PEG ratio is considered to be an indicator of a stock’s true value, and similar to the P/E ratio, a lower PEG may indicate that a stock is undervalued.
  • The PEG for a given company may differ significantly from one reported source to another.
  • Differences will depend on which growth estimate is used in the calculation, such as one-year or three-year projected growth.
  • A PEG lower than 1.0 is best, suggesting that a company is relatively undervalued.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp

2. Small Cap 600 Hits Covid Levels…P/E 12

3. Equal Weighted to Cap Weighted Lowest Since 2008.

4. U.S. Dollar More New Highs

5. International a Couple Strong Days.

But…Year to Date Dollar Up=Emerging Markets Down….U.S. Dollar +8% vs. Emerging Markets -3%

www.yahoofinance.com

6. Households Long 60/40 Getting Worried After 2 Years Negative

The 60/40 portfolio continues to underperform and households are getting more worried about their retirement, see chart below.

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner

7. COST VS. TGT …

This chart shows big outperformance of Costco vs. Target

8. Uranium Making Run at Highs.

9. Home Remodeling=Rates Up Projects Down

10. Your Brain Is Incredibly Creative and Adaptable

Psychology Today The brain’s ability to keep us from becoming prey is a remarkable feat. Justin James Kennedy,

KEY POINTS

  • Popular narratives oversimplify the complexity of the brain as a three-layered structure.
  • The brain is designed to creatively coordinate actions to adapt to the environment and navigate challenges.
  • The brain shares a common foundation with mammals but has a unique, extensive developmental window.

Co-authored by Denise Cooper.

When we learn about the theory of evolution, we often envision a vast interwoven tree that culminates with humans at the end. This perception imbues the natural world with purpose, leading us to reverse-engineer everything and see all previous life forms as mere stepping stones toward humanity. The human brain is a remarkable organ designed to coordinate our actions, enabling us to adapt to our environment and navigate its challenges. However, it is crucial to maintain sight of what the brain is for and how it evolved.

The Brain’s Evolutionary Purpose

Similar to other mammals and vertebrates, the human brain has a common structural foundation. Its true distinction lies in the extensive developmental window through which it matures. Unlike other animals whose instincts primarily prompt flight, fight, or survival behaviors, human infants are born with a different set of questions in mind: “Where am I? What am I dealing with? And what do I need?” These inquiries have been instrumental in propelling human development to its current state.

The Brain’s Evolutionary Arms Race

The evolution of brains was propelled by the predator-prey dynamic, initiating a competitive race between species to outsmart one another. Consequently, the imperative for survival drove the evolution of heightened senses, agile muscles, powerful wings, and swift feet, all necessitating more advanced brains to support these adaptations.

The Brain’s Complexity

The common narrative often simplifies the human brain into three distinct layers: the “lizard brain” for basics, the “limbic brain” for regulation, and the “cerebral cortex” for rationality. However, this portrayal, while convenient, fails to capture the true complexity of our brains. In reality, all brains, regardless of complexity, are intricately designed to coordinate increasingly sophisticated functions.

The human brain, a marvel of complexity, governs our thoughts, emotions, movements, and coordination. What truly distinguishes the human brain is its remarkable creativity and adaptability. Constantly generating innovative ideas and problem-solving solutions, our brains enable us to invent, create art, and find novel approaches, even in challenging circumstances.

Our brains exhibit extraordinary adaptability. When confronted with new challenges, they can rewire themselves to help us overcome obstacles. For instance, when we learn a new language, our brains create fresh neural pathways to store the information.

If we experience the loss of a limb, our brains can remap sensory and motor areas to compensate for the loss. This inherent creativity and adaptability are the essence of our humanity, empowering us to learn, evolve, innovate, and thrive in an ever-changing world.

The Resilience and Brilliance of the Human Brain

Barrett, L. F., & Satpute, A. B. (2013) emphasize that the structure of our brains is not drastically different from that of other mammals or vertebrates. What sets us apart, though, is the extensive developmental phase during which our brains mature. As infants, our instinctive reactions are not solely focused on flight, fight, or hiding; instead, we inquire about our location, situation, needs, and desires.

While it may lack grandiosity, the most remarkable aspect of our brain is its ability to ensure our survival. Our brains have honed their adaptability through countless generations, enabling us to evade the threats. This resilience is a testament to the evolutionary success of our species.

Its adaptability and capacity to navigate complex environments have been pivotal in our species’ progression. As we continue to uncover the mysteries of the brain, it is crucial to appreciate its primal nature and the remarkable journey that has brought us to where we are today—safely and triumphantly evading the perils of our world and designing new and exciting realities.

Conclusion

It is essential to acknowledge that the narratives we construct to showcase our creative side are merely stories, and their accuracy cannot always be verified, as per Barrett, L. F., Mesquita, B., Ochsner, K. N., & Gross, J. J. (2007) The popularised story often told about our brain, which portrays it as a three-layered structure: the “lizard brain” responsible for basic functions, the “limbic brain” for regulation, and the “cerebral cortex” for rationality, is limiting. This storyline is attractive, aligning neatly with the familiar biology classroom poster. But it doesn’t explain the human mind’s extraordinary ability to envision new ideas and turn them into functional tools for our enjoyment and betterment.

Professor Lisa Feldman Barrett offers insights into how the brain processes emotions and the need for social interactions. However, it is crucial to remember the brain’s purpose and how it came into existence. The brain’s fundamental role is to coordinate our actions effectively, enabling us to adapt to our surroundings. Given that the world is filled with surprises, many of which threaten our well-being, possessing a brain is our best defense mechanism.

While it may not be the most glamorous tale or a blockbuster movie plot, let’s take a moment to appreciate the sheer brilliance of our brains. Keep up the great work, brain—you’re doing an exceptional job of bringing wonder and delight to the world and keeping us off the carnivore menu.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/brain-reboot/202311/your-brain-is-incredibly-creative-and-adaptable

Topley’s Top 10 – November 02, 2023

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1. P/E Rations Magnificent 7 Vs. The World.

A once-in-a-generation opportunity (rbadvisors.com)

2. Three Consecutive Down Months for S&P

3. Another Consumer Stock Gaps Down….EL…$340 to $105

4. Vanguard REIT Index Breaks Below 2022 Lows.

5. Public Markets vs. Private Equity Size…Torsten Slok Apollo

6. Net Worth Boom

7. U.S. Homes 3.4 Months Supply for Sale.

8. Share of U.S. Borrowers in Mortgage Delinquency at 25-Year Low

Found at Michael Batnick Blog https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/

9. Britian From Imperialism to Exporting Elite Private Education

10. Pitfalls That Destroy Organizational Trust-HBR

by Frances X. Frei and Anne Morriss Facebook made “Move fast and break things” an informal company motto. But leadership experts Frances Frei and Anne Morriss argue that this belief is deeply flawed — and that it keeps leaders from building a great company.

The best leaders move fast and fix things — they solve hard problems while making their organizations stronger. In their new book Move Fast and Fix Things (Harvard Business Review Press), Frei and Morriss outline five strategies to help leaders tackle their hardest problems and quickly make change:

  1. Identify your real problem. (See 10 Signs Your Company Is Resistant to Change)
  2. Build — or rebuild — trust with your stakeholders.
  3. Create inclusive conditions that allow your whole team to thrive. (See 10 Reasons Why Inclusion Is a Competitive Advantage)
  4. Tell a compelling story about the change you need to make.
  5. Execute your plan with a sense of urgency.

This month, we’ll be publishing a series of excerpts that correspond to each strategy. In this excerpt, Frei and Morriss explain that, just as with personal trust, organizational trust relies on the presence of authenticity, empathy, and logic. But most organizations are shaky on at least one of these trust pillars.  Which ones are getting in the way of your organization’s progress? 

In order to trust you as an organization, your stakeholders need to believe three things: that you care about them (empathy), that you’re capable of meeting their needs (logic), and that you can be expected to do what you say you’ll do (authenticity). Just like when people lose trust, organizations that are losing trust — or failing to build as much trust as they could — tend to get shaky or wobble on one of these three dimensions. Below is a list of some of the trust problems we see most frequently in our work, along with what they reveal about what’s getting wobbly.

 1. Aversion to making choices

This one can present in all kinds of ways, from managing for consensus to trying to be great at everything you do as an organization. A gentle reminder: although it may feel safer to hedge your bets, catering to a constituent that can be best described as “everyone” is often a much riskier path for the company. Your refusal to choose is increasing the likelihood of exhausted mediocrity. Trust wobble: logic.

2. Reliance on heroic employees

Many business models are designed for employees we wish we had, not for the employees we actually have — the ones with imperfections and lives outside of work. If your operations depend on people continuously going above and beyond, then be prepared to work much harder to find these magical creatures and reward them with outsize compensation. Few organizations are truly up for the task. Trust wobble: logic.

3. Shiny object syndrome

The human brain is wired to focus on the new, new thing, even when the old, old thing matters more. A lack of intention (also known, less cheerily, as lack of discipline) in the pursuit of new opportunities puts your business model at risk. Excellent adventures in new products and markets are often justified by hazy ROI equations that inflate the upside and downplay the risk, including the cost of distraction from more urgent priorities. May be accompanied by other types of magical thinking. Trust wobble: logic.

4. Disengaged middle management

Managers in what we call the “murky middle” of an organization are often the only people who know the true distance between a company’s reality and its ambition. They know how much effort it’s going to take to win, understand the true hazards of the journey, and typically have the most to lose (and least to gain) along the way. And yet, instead of being unleashed in moments of big change, middle managers are often overlooked by a leadership team that’s focused on inspiring the front lines and gaining buy-in at the top. Trust wobble: empathy.

5. Casual relationship with other people’s time

Do you treat your people’s time as if it’s your most strategic asset? It’s one of our favorite leadership reflection prompts, and you’ll hear us repeat it again and again. Far too many organizations are far too comfortable wasting their employees’ time on everything from clunky HR software to forcing everyone to come into the office to indulge a nostalgic view of what work used to feel like. The opportunity cost is immeasurable. Trust wobble: empathy.

6. Comfort with collateral damage

This is the “break things” part of “Move fast and break things,” which can get embedded into an organization’s culture. It often presents as desensitization to unintentional harms and justified by a “We tried our best” storyline. Organizations that would never tolerate this attitude when it comes to some parts of the business (“We tried our best to protect our financial data!”) often want participation trophies for trying not to harm their users and employees. Trust wobble: empathy.

7. High incidence of the “Sunday scaries”

If a significant percentage of your colleagues feel an impending sense of dread at the thought of coming to work, then something is strained, if not broken, in the company’s relationship with its employees. Sometimes there’s an unskilled (or worse) manager to blame, but when people are experiencing this kind of anticipatory anxiety at scale, then there’s an org-level problem that needs to be fixed. (Spoiler: You’re getting a small fraction of what your people are capable of contributing.) Trust wobble: empathy.

8. People-pleasing in the boardroom

This pattern is rooted in our human impulse to tell people what we think they want to hear, particularly when said people can materially impact our organizational and/or professional futures. We’re not talking about fraud or misrepresentation here but rather a habit of gently withholding, massaging, and constructing reality. The trust hit for this one is often higher than we think, since boards tend are sensitive to being managed and typically composed of excellent detectors of partial truths. Know that what they really want from you is the information they need to help the company solve problems. Trust wobble: authenticity.

9. Tolerance for misalignment

Is your marketing team writing checks that your product team can’t cash? Lack of alignment anywhere in the business is a problem but pay closest attention to org-level disconnects. One we see frequently is a gap between strategy and culture — for example, a strategy of innovation layered onto a culture defined by coloring within the lines. Trust wobble: authenticity.

10. Delusions of meritocracy

OK, here’s what this looks like: you’ve told yourselves you’re a meritocracy, but you keep hiring, promoting, and retaining the same types of people. If the humans at the top of your organization bear little resemblance to the rest of your employees, the customers you serve, or the demographic distribution of the communities in which you operate, then we promise you, you’re not a meritocracy. Trust wobble: authenticity.

Read more on Organizational change or related topics Change management, Business management, Collaboration and teams, Inclusion and belonging, Organizational development, Organizational culture, Organizational decision making, Organizational transformation, Project management, Innovation and Leadership and managing people

https://hbr.org/2023/10/10-pitfalls-that-destroy-organizational-trust?tpcc=orgsocial_edit&utm_campaign=hbr&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin

Topley’s Top 10 – November 01, 2023

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1. Russell 1000 Growth Holding Above 200-Day

2. Small Cap SMIN India Breaks Above 2021 Highs

Small cap India vs. Small Cap China ECNS….2023 India outperformance.

3. AAPL and MSFT Bigger Market Cap than 4 Sectors Combined

4. Bitcoin Rally………Coin Big Rally But Stays in Sideways Pattern

5. Crypto Miners MARA and RIOT

MARA still below 200day

RIOT still below 200-day

6. KBW Bank Index Trades Back to Covid Levels.

7. Eurozone Inflation Falling Rapidly

8. China Restructures Belt and Road Loans.

From Zerohedge Blog

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinas-belt-and-road-rescue-lending-soars

9. Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise 6-Months in a Row.

Marketwatch Aarthi Swaminathan

What S&P said: “On a year-to-date basis, the National Composite has risen 5.8%, which is well above the median full calendar year increase in more than 35 years of data,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI. 

“The year’s increase in mortgage rates has surely suppressed housing demand, but after years of very low rates, it seems to have suppressed supply even more,” he added.

“Unless higher rates or other events lead to general economic weakness, the breadth and strength of this month’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results,” Lazzara said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-home-prices-rose-for-the-sixth-month-in-a-row-case-shiller-says-2060f19b?mod=home-page

10. Exposure to light at night found to increase risk of depression by 30%

Found at Abnormal Returns Blog https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/exposure-to-light-at-night-found-to-increase-risk-of-depression-by-30/

By Paul McClure

A study has found that nighttime exposure to light increases the risk of mental illness

Depositphotos

VIEW 1 IMAGES

A new study has found that exposure to light at night messes with our internal body clock, increasing the risk of mental illness, while daytime light exposure reduces that risk. The findings offer a simple and effective, non-pharmacological means of improving mental health.

Our internal body clock, or circadian rhythm, regulates cycles of alertness and sleepiness by responding to the changes in light in our environment. While other cues such as exercise, social activity and temperature can affect circadian rhythm, light remains the most powerful influence.

It’s known that disturbances in circadian rhythm are a common feature of many psychiatric disorders. So, it makes sense that light exposure is a modifiable environmental risk factor in mental illness. To investigate, Monash University researchers led the world’s largest study on the effect of exposure to daytime and nighttime light on mental illness risk.

The researchers recruited 86,772 adult participants from the UK Biobank who were examined for their exposure to light, sleep, physical activity and mental health. They found that in those exposed to high amounts of light at night, the risk of depression increased by 30%, while in those exposed to high amounts of daytime light, their risk of depression fell by 20%.

Similar patterns were seen for self-harming behavior, psychosis, bipolar disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, and PTSD. The findings were consistent when accounting for demographic factors, physical activity, sleep, shift work, living environment and cardiometabolic health.

“Our findings will have a potentially huge societal impact,” said Sean Cain, one of the study’s co-authors. “Once people understand that their light exposure patterns have a powerful influence on their mental health, they can take some simple steps to optimize their wellbeing. It’s about getting bright light in the day and darkness at night.”

The researchers say that modern life – particularly artificial light and the light from devices like phones, computers and TV screens – has confused our internal body clocks, challenging how our brains have evolved to work best during the bright light of day.

“Humans today challenge this biology, spending around 90% of the day indoors under electric lighting, which is too dim during the day and too bright at night compared with natural light and dark cycles,” Cain said. “It is confusing to our bodies and making us unwell.”

The study’s findings demonstrate that avoiding light at night and seeking light during the day may be a simple and effective non-pharmacological way of improving mental health.

The study was published in the journal Nature Mental Health.

Source: https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/exposure-to-light-at-night-found-to-increase-risk-of-depression-by-30/

Monash University