Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

Topley’s Top 10 – May 18, 2023

1. Debt Market View FAANG as Safer than U.S. Government Debt.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/thomas-tom-lee-98756b6/


2. FAANG Rallies Right Back to 2022 Highs.


3. Cash to Debt Ratio Show Corporate Borrowers Maintaining Liquidity

Guggenheim

https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/perspectives/sector-views/high-yield-and-bank-loan-outlook-april-2023


4. The Risk On Chart of Year ..Bitcoin +64% YTD


5. Shopping Center Rents Record Highs

By Kate King WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/warby-parker-allbirds-everlane-parachute-collars-co-stores-e4b94623


6. Retail Shopping ETF Still in Downtrend…RTH

www.stockcharts.com


7. Credit Card Debt not Getting Paid Down in Q1

WE O U $17T  The New York Fed recently released its first-quarter report on household debt, revealing that American households now owe someone a staggering $17 trillion.  The majority of that is tied up in home mortgages, with the remainder split across student loans, car loans and credit cards — with the latter (and smallest) of those 3 categories particularly striking.

Credit card debt remained at a record level of $986 billion, defying the usual trend of post-holiday debt reduction. Indeed, this is the first time in over two decades that credit card balances haven’t decreased in the first quarter — a period when many cut back on spending after the holiday period of October-December.All told, credit card debt rose 17% in the last 12 months, a potential sign that consumers are turning to credit cards to cope with mounting daily expenses as inflation continues to bite. Another concern is the rising delinquency rate, with ~4.6% of credit card debt transitioning into “serious delinquency” — where debt remains unpaid for 90+ days — up from just 3% during the same period last year.

Save to spendThis current situation stands in contrast to the pandemic, when US consumers, buoyed by stimulus checks and lockdown savings, managed to pay off $160bn of credit card debt between the end of 2019 and March 2021.

www.chartr.com


8. U.S. Commercial Real Estate Prices Turn Down in Q1….First Time in a Decade.

Bloomberg Rich Miller

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-17/us-commercial-real-estate-prices-fall-for-first-time-since-2011?sref=GGda9y2L


9. Office Space-Is 50% the New (Metro) RTO?

The Big Picture by Barry Ritholtz

I mentioned a few weeks ago how much better Europe‘s return to office rate was doing versus ours: 90+% RTO, while the USA is ~60%. I cannot speak to Europe, but that U.S. number is an average across all regions, industries, age groups, etc. In some parts of the country, it is appreciably higher or lower; as you might imagine, it varies greatly.

The biggest drag? Big cities.  As Torsten Slok’s chart above shows, the biggest metropolitan employment centers run lower than the national average — which is about 50%. The range is surprisingly wide, from mids-30s to upper-60s: Austin,1 Texas is in the mid-60% range; San Jose is in the high-30%; San Francisco, D.C., and Philidelphia are low-40%. New York City, the biggest US metro center, is one of the laggards with an office occupancy rate of 46%.

Hybrid work models are now well-established. This leads Slok to ask a fascinating question: Is 50% the new permanent level in most metropolitan areas for RTO?

https://ritholtz.com/2023/04/metropolitan-rto/


10. Odds of Premature Mortality

Scott Galloway According to the U.S. Surgeon General (an impressive man who makes you feel good about America): “Evidence across scientific disciplines converges on the conclusion that socially connected people live longer.” Social isolation is associated with a 29% increase in the risk of heart disease and a 32% increase in the risk of stroke. Put another way: loneliness kills.

https://www.profgalloway.com/ailone/

Topley’s Top 10 – May 17, 2023

1. Margin Debt -35% from Peaks.

– margin debt tanked -35% off peak and -$330 billion
– greater than GFC peak to trough
– and 1.59% (% market cap) lowest since dot-com low

https://www.linkedin.com/company/fsinsight/


2. Fed Fund Rate Greater than CPI….This May Signal the End of Rate Hikes.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading Ryan notes Another clue the Fed is likely done hiking?  Fed funds rate > CPI YoY – Each of the previous 8 cycles could stop once this was in place.


3. Software ETF Still Bouncing Along Bottom


4. Biotech ETF Still in Range Near Bottom-IBB ETF


5. IPO Market Still Closed…IPO ETF Sideways

www.stockcharts.com


6. Walmart vs. Target

This chart shows Walmart performance vs. Target….straight up since 2021…50day thru 200day to upside.


7. Home Depot Chart.

HD closes right at 200 week moving average.

HD P/E Ratio..15x has been bottom of range since 2014 Macrotrends blog

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/HD/home-depot/pe-ratio


8. Personal Savings Rates by Income

GMO Research

https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/


9. Drug Enforcement Administration Announces the Seizure of Over 379 million Deadly Doses of Fentanyl in 2022

WASHINGTON – As 2022 comes to an end, the Drug Enforcement Administration is announcing the seizure of over 50.6 million fentanyl-laced, fake prescription pills and more than 10,000 pounds of fentanyl powder this calendar year. The DEA Laboratory estimates that these seizures represent more than 379 million potentially deadly doses of fentanyl.

Fentanyl is the deadliest drug threat facing this country. It is a highly addictive man-made opioid that is 50 times more potent than heroin. Just two milligrams of fentanyl, the small amount that fits on the tip of a pencil, is considered a potentially deadly dose.

“In the past year, the men and women of the DEA have relentlessly worked to seize over 379 million deadly doses of fentanyl from communities across the country,” said Administrator Anne Milgram. “These seizures – enough deadly doses of fentanyl to kill every American – reflect DEA’s unwavering commitment to protect Americans and save lives, by tenaciously pursuing those responsible for the trafficking of fentanyl across the United States. DEA’s top operational priority is to defeat the two Mexican drug cartels—the Sinaloa and Jalisco (CJNG) Cartels—that are primarily responsible for the fentanyl that is killing Americans today.”

Most of the fentanyl trafficked by the Sinaloa and CJNG Cartels is being mass-produced at secret factories in Mexico with chemicals sourced largely from China. In 2021, the DEA issued a Public Safety Alert on the widespread drug trafficking of fentanyl in the form of fentanyl-laced, fake prescription pills. These pills are made to look identical to real prescription medications—including OxyContin®, Percocet®, and Xanax®—but only contain filler and fentanyl and are often deadly. Fake pills are readily found on social media. No pharmaceutical pill bought on social media is safe. The only safe medications are ones prescribed directly to you by a trusted medical professional and dispensed by a licensed pharmacist.

Just last month, DEA alerted the public to a sharp nationwide increase in the lethality of fentanyl-laced fake prescription pills.  DEA laboratory testing in 2022 revealed that six out of ten fentanyl-laced, fake prescription pills contained a potentially lethal dose of fentanyl. This is an increase from DEA’s announcement in 2021 that four out of ten fentanyl-laced, fake prescription pills contain a potentially deadly dose.

In 2022, DEA seized more than double the amount of fentanyl-laced, fake prescription pills that it seized in 2021. DEA also seized nearly 131,000 pounds of methamphetamine, more than 4,300 pounds of heroin, and over 444,000 pounds of cocaine. DEA is now providing a regularly updated counter at http://www.dea.gov to track approximate amounts of fentanyl pills and fentanyl powder seized by DEA.

DEA has created a Faces of Fentanyl memorial to commemorate the lives lost from fentanyl poisoning. To submit a photo of a loved one lost to fentanyl, please send their name, age, and photograph to fentanylawareness@dea.gov, or post a photo and their name to social media using the hashtag #JustKNOW.

https://www.dea.gov/press-releases/2022/12/20/drug-enforcement-administration-announces-seizure-over-379-million-deadly


10. Motivation: The Driving Force Behind Our Actions

By Kendra Cherry 

What Are the 3 Components of Motivation?

If you’ve ever had a goal (like wanting to lose 20 pounds or run a marathon), you probably already know that simply having the desire to accomplish these things is not enough. You must also be able to persist through obstacles and have the endurance to keep going in spite of difficulties faced.

These different elements or components are needed to get and stay motivated. Researchers have identified three major components of motivation: activation, persistence, and intensity.4

  • Activation is the decision to initiate a behavior. An example of activation would be enrolling in psychology courses in order to earn your degree.
  • Persistence is the continued effort toward a goal even though obstacles may exist. An example of persistence would be showing up for your psychology class even though you are tired from staying up late the night before.
  • Intensity is the concentration and vigor that goes into pursuing a goal.5 For example, one student might coast by without much effort (minimal intensity) while another student studies regularly, participates in classroom discussions, and takes advantage of research opportunities outside of class (greater intensity).

The degree of each of these components of motivation can impact whether you achieve your goal. Strong activation, for example, means that you are more likely to start pursuing a goal. Persistence and intensity will determine if you keep working toward that goal and how much effort you devote to reaching it.

Tips for Improving Your Motivation

All people experience fluctuations in their motivation and willpower. Sometimes you feel fired up and highly driven to reach your goals. Other times, you might feel listless or unsure of what you want or how to achieve it.

If you’re feeling low on motivation, there are steps you can take to help increase your drive. Some things you can do to develop or improve your motivation include:

  • Adjust your goals to focus on things that really matter to you. Focusing on things that are highly important to you will help push you through your challenges more than goals based on things that are low in importance.
  • If you’re tackling something that feels too big or too overwhelming, break it up into smaller, more manageable steps. Then, set your sights on achieving only the first step. Instead of trying to lose 50 pounds, for example, break this goal down into five-pound increments.
  • Improve your confidence. Research suggests that there is a connection between confidence and motivation.6 So, gaining more confidence in yourself and your skills can impact your ability to achieve your goals.
  • Remind yourself about what you’ve achieved in the past and where your strengths lie. This helps keep self-doubts from limiting your motivation.
  • If there are things you feel insecure about, try working on making improvements in those areas so you feel more skilled and capable.

 What to Do When You Have No Motivation

Causes of Low Motivation

There are a few things you should watch for that might hurt or inhibit your motivation levels. These include:

  • All-or-nothing thinking: If you think that you must be absolutely perfect when trying to reach your goal or there is no point in trying, one small slip-up or relapse can zap your motivation to keep pushing forward.
  • Believing in quick fixes: It’s easy to feel unmotivated if you can’t reach your goal immediately but reaching goals often takes time.
  • Thinking that one size fits all: Just because an approach or method worked for someone else does not mean that it will work for you. If you don’t feel motivated to pursue your goals, look for other things that will work better for you.

Motivation and Mental Health

Sometimes a persistent lack of motivation is tied to a mental health condition such as depression. Talk to your doctor if you are feeling symptoms of apathy and low mood that last longer than two weeks.

Theories of Motivation

Throughout history, psychologists have proposed different theories to explain what motivates human behavior. The following are some of the major theories of motivation.

Instincts

The instinct theory of motivation suggests that behaviors are motivated by instincts, which are fixed and inborn patterns of behavior.7 Psychologists such as William James, Sigmund Freud, and William McDougal have proposed several basic human drives that motivate behavior. They include biological instincts that are important for an organism’s survival—such as fear, cleanliness, and love.

Drives and Needs

Many behaviors such as eating, drinking, and sleeping are motivated by biology. We have a biological need for food, water, and sleep. Therefore, we are motivated to eat, drink, and sleep. The drive reduction theory of motivation suggests that people have these basic biological drives, and our behaviors are motivated by the need to fulfill these drives.8

Abraham Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is another motivation theory based on a desire to fulfill basic physiological needs. Once those needs are met, it expands to our other needs, such as those related to safety and security, social needs, self-esteem, and self-actualization.

Arousal Levels

The arousal theory of motivation suggests that people are motivated to engage in behaviors that help them maintain their optimal level of arousal.4 A person with low arousal needs might pursue relaxing activities such as reading a book, while those with high arousal needs might be motivated to engage in exciting, thrill-seeking behaviors such as motorcycle racing.

The Bottom Line

Psychologists have proposed many different theories of motivation. The reality is that there are numerous different forces that guide and direct our motivations.

Understanding motivation is important in many areas of life beyond psychology, from parenting to the workplace. You may want to set the best goals and establish the right reward systems to motivate others as well as to increase your own motivation.

Knowledge of motivating factors (and how to manipulate them) is used in marketing and other aspects of industrial psychology. It’s an area where there are many myths, and everyone can benefit from knowing what works with motivation and what doesn’t.

https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-motivation-2795378

Topley’s Top 10 – May 16, 2023

1. 5-Year TIPS Break-Even at FED Target 2%

https://ycharts.com/indicators/5_year_tipstreasury_breakeven_rate#:~:text=5%20Year%20TIPS%2FTreasury%20Breakeven%20Rate%20is%20at%202.10%25%2C,long%20term%20average%20of%201.91%25.

2. Re-Visit of XLF Financials ETF Chart

XLF still holding 200 week moving average …50week still above 200week

3. Howard Marks on Private Credit.

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading OAKTREE WARNS– Howard Marks, the co-founder of $172bn investment group Oaktree Capital Management, has warned that the boom in private credit will soon be tested as higher interest rates and slower economic growth heap pressure on corporate America. The 77-year-old billionaire told the Financial Times that big asset managers had competed aggressively to lend to the largest private equity groups as money poured into their coffers in 2020and 2021, raising questions over the due diligence the funds conducted when they  agreed to provide multibillion-dollar loans. “Did the managers make good credit decisions, ensuring an adequate margin of safety, or did they invest fast because they could accumulate more capital? We’ll see”

Data provider Preqin estimates the private credit market, which includes loans for corporate takeovers, has grown to about $1.5tn from roughly $440bn a decade ago. Fundraising has been brisk, eclipsing $150bn every year since 2019.  But part of that influx of capital was lent when markets were on a seemingly unstoppable march higher — before the US Federal Reserve began aggressively raising interest rates. Competition among private lenders pushed borrowing costs down at the time.

4. International Breadth Stronger than U.S….75% of Names Above 200day.

LPL Research

https://lplresearch.com/2023/05/12/tides-turning-toward-international-stocks/#more-27545

5. U.S. Budget Deficit is Widest Ever Entering a Recession

Zerohedge The US’s budget deficit is currently running at 8% of GDP, wider than any other major country, and already significantly more than where it was prior to previous recessions.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-market-about-get-intimidating-again

6. Institutional Money Selling Stocks for 12 Months.

7. Chicago Office Space 22% Vacancy…Bad Quarter of Demand.

Bloomberg-Things aren’t looking up for the commercial real estate market, with the city’s office-vacancy rate reaching a record 22.4% in the first quarter. Even tech companies, once seen as a bright opportunity for Chicago’s future, are retrenching: Salesforce Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. are giving up almost 240,000 square feet (22,300 square meters) of space. By

Isis Almeida and Shruti Singh

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-15/chicago-s-empty-towers-threaten-future-of-finance-trading-empire?sref=GGda9y2L

8. U.S. Retail Gas Prices -30% from Highs

Y-Charts

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price

9. 14 million mortgages were refinanced during ‘pandemic boom.’ That makes life very difficult for home buyers.

Aarthi Swaminathan Marketwatch

The great pandemic mortgage refinance boom is most definitely over, but the aftershock is still rippling through the housing market. Homeowners are holding up home sales, as their ultra-low prize is too precious to give up.

During the early days of coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates fell sharply, and millions of homeowners jumped at the opportunity to refinance. The 30-year mortgage fell down to 2.65% in early January of 2021, according to Freddie Mac data FMCC, +2.11%.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimated that 14 million mortgages were refinanced during the “pandemic refinancing boom.” 

The surge in refinancing was, in part, due to strong household balance sheets and an increased need for housing, the New York Fed said in a blog post published Monday.  The average homeowner who refinanced saw their monthly payment drop by $220, the Fed said.The biggest share of mortgages that were refinanced originated from 2015 onwards, the NY Fed. said. Older mortgages, such as those originated before 2010, were the least likely to be refinanced. 

Homeowners most likely to refinance their mortgage owed a balance of $400,000 to $500,000 on their mortgage, the NY Fed concluded.  “The mortgage refinancing boom is over, but its impact will be seen for decades to come,” Andrew Haughwout, director of household and public policy research at the NY Fed, said in a statement.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/14-million-mortgages-were-refinanced-during-pandemic-boom-that-makes-life-very-difficult-for-home-buyers-766b8ab?mod=home-page

10. 10 Ways to Declutter Your Mind

How to feel lighter and more hopeful using these powerful, yet simple tools.  Shonda Moralis MSW, LCSW

KEY POINTS

  • Cluttered minds can weigh people down and cause unnecessary stress.
  • Individuals can use simple practices to declutter and spring clean their minds.
  • It just takes a few minutes a day to create healthy, sustainable habits. 

This time of year often brings thoughts of spring cleaning our homes—throwing open the windows, decluttering, and organizing. A fresh start to a new season feels light and hopeful.

It’s also the perfect time to spring clean our minds (and our lives in general) by taking stock and recommitting to our priorities.

Whether house or mind, attempting a massive overhaul all at once is not recommended—taking it one small step at a time is far more effective for sustainability and follow-through.

The following are some easy, fun tips to spruce up your life in manageable, bite-sized pieces:

Begin with your mindset.

Let go of thoughts that don’t serve you. We find evidence for what it is we focus on. If my mind is trained on what’snot going well, I will notice the negative more—and vice versa. We can habituate our minds to be on the lookout for the good stuff daily.

Be in the moment. We spend so much of our time in the past or in the future and miss out on what is happening right in front of us. Notice when you are worrying (the future) or rehashing (the past) and come back to what’s here now. (Meditation also helps train our minds to be more in the present moment.)

Do a daily brain dump. Get all of your to-do’s, worries, and thoughts down on paper first thing in the morning, or keep a notebook and pencil by your bed to jot down random thoughts when your mind is full late at night.

Do a digital or screen detox. Spend a weekend day or shorter block of time screen-free in order to make room for creative thought.

Surroundings

Where in your life could you use more organization? Even if you are a well-organized person, there is usually at least one area that can be streamlined—emails, finances, paperwork, the sock drawer—pick one. If you need some motivation, set a timer for 10 minutes or blast your favorite music.

Priorities

Reflect: After the upheaval of the past few years, what have you learned? What do you want to let go of, and what gets to stay? If you’ve acclimated to a slower pace or more downtime, you might keep one day on the weekend for unscheduled rest or fun.

Identify your top four values (what matters most to you—think nature, learning, community), and let them guide your actions and priorities. Knowing our top values helps keep our priorities and actions in check. If family is one of your top values, for example, each time you decide whether or not to take on a work project or say yes to a social engagement, ask yourself if you are allowing enough family time.

Energy

Track your energy: Notice your level of energy when engaged in various activities or tasks. Do you love to garden? You might feel relaxed, calm, and content. Carve out time for more of that (and less social media, which likely drains you). Does cooking dinner and deciding what to make tire you out? Meal plan, assign other family members to make dinner on certain nights, or order a meal subscription service. When possible, do more of what energizes you and less of what drains you. What can you add, delete, or delegate from your to-do list?

Get outside and get moving. Spring ushers in a renewed sense of energy. Moving our bodies helps calm our minds and opens up creative thought.

Cold water swimming is trending to boost energy and ward off depression. Cold bodies of water are decidedly not for me. I do, however, love to step outside in the morning with my cup of coffee, listen to the birds sing, and let the cold air wake me up, starting the day refreshed.

Start a new healthy habit. Be intentional about what habit you choose. What do you want to do and why? Knowing our why helps renew our motivation when it inevitably flags. I might, for example, begin stretching five minutes a day to increase flexibility, lessen stiffness, and prevent injuries, and it feels great!

Which one life spring cleaning tip will you experiment with today

Shonda Moralis, MSW, LCSW, is a psychotherapist, mindfulness educator, writer, and mom of two. Shonda Moralis MSW, LCSW

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/breathe-mama-breathe/202305/10-ways-to-declutter-your-mind

Topley’s Top 10 – May 15, 2023

1. History of Bonds Post Fed Rate Hike Cycle.

JP Morgan Private Bank

2. Where Will All This Cash Be Deployed?

Capital Group

https://www.capitalgroup.com/advisor/insights/articles/what-do-with-cash-fed-changes-course.html?sfid=1988901890&cid=80986979&et_cid=80986979&cgsrc=SFMC&alias=D-btn-LP-6-A1cta-Advisor

3. Oil Down 4 Weeks in a Row…Energy ETF Bearish Cross to Downside.

50day thru 200day to downside for last year’s winning sector energy

4. GOOGL Bullish Cross to Upside.

Last year’s loser tech add another bullish chart….GOOGL still well off highs but 50day thru 200 day to upside.

5. The Dramatic Increase in Satellite Launches.

Barrons

https://www.barrons.com/articles/spacex-starlink-ipo-elon-musk-b6c02c7?mod=past_editions

6. Space ETF UFO Testing Previous Lows.

www.stockcharts.com

7. Credit: The US still has too many banks.

Source: Goldman Sachs

https://dailyshotbrief.com

8. Youth Unemployment in China 20%

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/watch-china-economic-data-recovery-015804766.html

9. Tech vs. Banks Dispersion

Barbara Kollmeyer Marketwatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-end-of-the-runway-is-nearing-for-lofty-tech-and-soggy-banks-get-ready-says-this-strategist-c2d15f9d?mod=home-page

10. Shifting Paradigms: 3 Business ‘Truths’ That Are Fundamentally Untrue

Reframe your entrepreneurial dream with a few shifts in perspective and a clear methodology to achieve a more joyful life.

BY ENTREPRENEURS’ ORGANIZATION@ENTREPRENEURORG

Photo: Getty Images

Michèle Hecken is an Entrepreneurs’ Organization (EO) member in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. An ex-CEO, she is the founder of The Art of Offboarding, a proprietary leadership and operational methodology which she implements in Fortune 500 companies. She is also a public speaker who delivers keynotes and workshops for organizations across the world. We asked Michèle how she transformed her business to do what she loves on her own terms. Here’s what she shared:

Delegate!”

“Go from good to great. Build a big business. Size matters.”

“Don’t work too hard. Work-life balance matters.”

Sound familiar to you? I know I’ve heard and grappled with these universal “truths” over the years, after starting a global translation company in my twenties and trying to grow it while raising two young children. 

Eventually, I realized something that would change the course of my entire life: There was a way to build a successful business based almost entirely on what you love doing rather than what you think you should love doing. 

I carved out a system to grow the business that served my family, my team, our customers, and myself. In 2019, it culminated in a high-seven-figure exit

Here are the three paradigm shifts that form its foundation: 

1. From “Delegating” to “Offboarding”

According to some, you should delegate to successfully grow a business. I’m here to tell you that this is not the solution but the problem. Why?

What happens when you delegate is a placebo effect. You feel good in the moment because you shuffled something off your desk. But then you do it again. And again. 

What happens next? You get lost in the follow-up. The time you saved on executing the tasks is replaced with endless coordination of employee work.

Delegating simply shifts the kind of work you do. You still own the task. Eventually, you become more stressed, as delegation encourages micromanagement. 

Offboarding is a game changer because it transfers task ownership–your employees own the entire outcome. Speaking from experience, this is an excellent way to train employees, increase their value to the business (and ensure they feel valued), and relax your grip. This also frees up your schedule, allowing you to pursue other goals.

2. From “Work-Life Balance” to “Life”

I’ve never met an entrepreneur who works optimally within a standard nine-to-five schedule. Some days we are in a deep state of flow and work 14 hours. On other days, we might struggle to get out of bed. At the same time, we build our businesses to give us the flexibility to be present for our non-work engagements whenever we want–trying to please everyone around us. 

When you try and make everybody happy, all while keeping everything “balanced,” it becomes an impossible challenge. 

The solution, something that I do when advising other entrepreneurs, is to reverse-engineer it all. Ask yourself:

·         What do I want my life to look like?

·         What is my ideal day?

·         How does my flow work on that day?

·         What kinds of freedoms do I want and need?

The goal isn’t to ensure burnout never happens again. Instead, it’s to optimize your life and business so that they align with your true self, your wants, and your needs.

3. From “Good to Great” to “Good to Happy”

Everyone wants to be happy in life–most of us prioritize happiness as a goal. 

The happiest lives are those that are continually enriched with new knowledge, connections, and experiences. That means having the willingness to get out there, try new things, and make time for enjoyment every day. You can’t get to this point by feeling forced to fit in fun or relaxation time, nor by stagnating and stifling your growth.

One practice I’ve implemented, that has worked wonders, is treating every day like a “mini life” and living it on my terms. Am I allocating my time and energy where I want it to go? Am I enjoying my day to the fullest and achieving the goals I’ve set? Most of all, have I done things that brought me joy today?

If you can respond with a resounding “yes” to these questions every day, you can theoretically achieve an entire lifetime of happiness. Sounds much more realistic this way, doesn’t it?

Reframing paradigms and shifting away from what you’ve been told should make you successful is not easy. The opportunity to co-author a recently published book, Lead Like a Woman: Audacity has allowed me to reflect on just how profoundly I’ve subverted traditional expectations both in my business and in my life.

I believe the entrepreneurial dream needs to be reframed to include a joyful life in which you never have to give up happiness for the sake of your business. I know that with a few shifts in perspective, a clear methodology, and a remarkable support system, every entrepreneur can achieve that reality.

https://www.inc.com/entrepreneurs-organization/shifting-paradigms-3-business-truths-that-are-fundamentally-untrue.html?utm_source=newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=inc%20-%20this%20morning%20newsletter.newsletter%20-%20inc%20-%20this%20morning%205-15-23&leadid=1548979&mkt_tok=njewluxfrs04nziaaaglvivot9mnkuvwqo5mkm-pygtu2uuuylc39joszgdzeu9hqkmsqlj3nhatejnqf6jbnyuvskygifgqcsyxbrfyhirwiymgp2ugz2s0v-fh

Topley’s Top 10 – May 12, 2023

1. 10-Year Treasury Yield Chart

Bearish cross to downside…50day thru 200day to downside.


2. Comparing U.S. vs. International Stock Returns Since 1970

Ben Carlson Here are total returns by various periods of over- or underperformance for each going back to 1970:

Some investors have an easier time wrapping their heads around annualized returns so here are those figures as well:

U.S. stock had an unbelievable run coming out of the Great Financial Crisis but international stocks did far better at times in the 1970s, 1980s and early-2000s.

It’s also true that much of the outperformance has taken place during the latest cycle. From 1970-2012, the annual returns were basically dead even:

  • U.S. stocks +9.7%
  • International stocks +9.6%

All of the outperformance has essentially come since 2013.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/05/the-case-for-international-diversification/


3. 20 Years of Negative Average Real Fed Funds Rate

@Charlie Bilello Since 2010, this has been a rarity, with ultra-easy monetary policy persisting nearly the entire time. 


4. Disney One-Year of Bouncing Along Bottom


5. Buyback ETF Chart.

Maybe another example of the concentration of performance this year….S&P positive but buyback etf bearish cross to downside…50day thru 200day

www.stockcharts.com


6. China: State-owned companies have been outperforming.

Source: Gavekal Research

https://dailyshotbrief.com


7. Wages and Earnings vs. Inflation

Jack Ablin Cresset Real wage growth has been negative consistently since April 2021, implying that American households are falling behind as the cost of food, energy and other products and services are racing ahead of incomes. Corporate profits have had a similarly difficult time outpacing the inflation current. Since March 2021, cumulative profit growth has trailed inflation by nine percentage points.

www.cressetcapital.com


8. Robinhood will launch 24-hour trading to let customers buy and sell Tesla, Apple, and other popular stocks around the clock

Business Insider

Carla Mozée 

May 11, 2023, 2:48 PM EDT

  • Robinhood will soon allow customers to buy and sell stocks and ETFs overnight in extended trading hours. 
  • Its 24 Hour Market will run Sunday through Friday starting at 8 p.m. ET, beginning this month. 
  • Customers can place limit orders on 43 individual stocks and ETFs including Tesla and Apple. 

Robinhood said 24-hour trading is coming to its platform as the company that was at the center of the meme-stock frenzy aims to accommodate time-strapped customers while pushing for wider change in trading operations. 

A rollout of 24 Hour Market will begin May 16 to a “subset” of customers, followed by all customers getting access in June. Trading hours will be from 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Sunday to 8 p.m. Eastern on Friday.

“We’ve often heard from customers that it’s tough to find time for investing during regular market hours with work, family, and everything in between,” Robinhood said in a statement. “24 Hour Market lets customers invest when they want, on their schedule.” 

The program will allow people to place limit orders to buy whole shares of TeslaAmazonApple and 40 other of the most-traded individual stocks and exchange-traded funds, the company said. 

Limit orders let investors buy or sell a security at a specific price versus market orders under which trades are made at the best available price. Limit orders could dial down the exposure for customers to large price swings that can occur after hours when trading volume is thinner than in regular market hours. 

Regular hours of stock trading Monday through Friday begin at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time and end at 4 p.m. Eastern. So-called after-hours trade or extended hours are available at some brokerages, with trading running early as 4 a.m. Eastern and stretching to 8 p.m. Eastern. 

“It’s the next step in evolving the market to how it should work, which is 24/7, and more like a piece of software rather than a brick-and-mortar institution that’s tied to U.S. East Coast working hours,” Robinhood’s Chief Executive Vlad Tenev told The Wall Street Journal.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/11/technology/china-us-chip-controls.html


9. NYC Running Out of Shelter Space

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/chicago-residents-throw-fit-over-new-migrants-dem-cities-clash-biden-admin-over-finances


10. 14 Great Study Habits for a Lifetime

Psychology Today Temma Ehrenfeld These tips can help at all ages, from high-school students to job-changers.

You need to study up. The tips that work for high school and college kids still apply, whether you’re a retiree learning for fun, adapting to meet challenges at a job, or boning up as part of a career switch.

Here are 14 ways to make learning go better. They may be especially helpful if you have ADHD or a low mood that limits your energy.

1. Take a little time to get into the right frame of mind. 

A little time, not so much that you’ve used up all of your available time. Dance to an upbeat song for 10 minutes. If you’re distracted by chores that need doing, list them, then put the list away for later. If you’re completely obsessed with a distraction, be honest with yourself. But don’t just procrastinate. Decide exactly when you’ll do your studying and commit to being in the right frame of mind.

Be positive. Instead of thinking, “I don’t have enough time,” think, “I’m starting now.” Remember that discipline and focus are skills that you can build over time in small steps.

2. Find a quiet spot without distractions and return to it next time.

Think, “Where did I do well?” Look for the ideal situation, not just “good enough.” It might be as simple as choosing to sit up on a living room chair rather than lie down on the sofa to read. Bed probably isn’t the best place.

3. Bring what you need, but only what you need.

If you need a book, don’t forget it. But if you can leave your smartphone well out of reach, do so. Do you truly learn best while listening to music? If so, have your music and earphones, but otherwise, don’t have them handy.

4. Don’t multi-task.

You may think you’re an expert at watching a video with the information you need and scrolling through Instagram. However, evidence suggests that common sense applies: You have only so much working memory, and you’re taking some of it up on Instagram. Your multi-tasking means you won’t absorb and retain as much of the video.

5. Outline your notes. Make lists and fill them in.

Make outlines that work for you, even if they might be confusing to someone else. Use words that make sense to you, translating the words in material you may be reading. “Chunk” together the groups of words or facts or ideas that you feel belong in a group. The goal is to produce an outline that will help you—not someone else—remember the material.

Writing may work better than keyboarding into a laptop. There’s some evidence that using our fingers in that way helps us think. Read aloud an important sentence if you’re alone or mouth the words if you’re in a library. You may think it’s babyish to mouth or read aloud. Actually, poetry was the first way that human beings remembered stories, and we haven’t changed that much.

6. If you like memory devices, use them and get creative.

Make up a catchy rhyme to associate ideas and repeat it out loud. Make up a sentence. For example, “Never Ever Seem Worried,” is a way to remember “North, East, South, West.” “Every Good Boy Deserves Fun” helps music students remember the five notes of the treble clef, “E, G, B, D, F.”

If you don’t know if you like memory devices, try one out and see if it sticks. Then the next time you’re studying, you can try another one.

If you tend to be visual, take your time looking at the illustrations or photos in the book you’re reading to associate them with the information.

7. Practice.

If you’re taking a class and will be writing the answer to a surprise question on a test, make up a likely question and do the exercise of writing an answer with a timer on. Do it again.

Actually try to solve the sample problems in the materials you’re using; don’t just read the answers. Make up similar problems, try to solve them, and later on, at the end of a study period, find sources that can tell you whether your answers were correct. If you’re learning a new language, you might write out some questions and answers and show them to a native speaker at your next opportunity. Research suggests that an activity in which you generate a product or test yourself is more powerful than time spent consuming information—for example, reviewing notes. 

8. Find buddies.

Some people like to work with a group of four or five other people who are at about their level. Quiz each other. Try to do as well as the person you most admire. Turn envy into a source of motivation rather than resentment.

9. Make a schedule you can stick to.

If you have any flexibility, notice the times of day when you’re sharpest and dedicate them to learning. If you’re studying at home on a weekend or work at home, take a warm morning shower to gear up for analytical work, advises biologist and body-clock expert Steve Kay. Get your studying or work done before lunch, especially if you’re an early riser. You’re likely to be most distractible from noon to 4 p.m.

Sticking to a schedule may seem like a burden, but you’ll appreciate the investment if you can avoid last-minute cramming. How many minutes you spend each time is less important than regularity.

9. Space it out.

Most work goes better if you divide it into realistic chunks. Try not to cram for an exam in one burst. The evidence against cramming is mixed, but the common-sense advice to plan ahead and proceed in a consistent way, spacing out your study time, does seem to be right. 

10. Take breaks.

If you’re falling asleep while reading, you may have picked the wrong time of day to study. Consider a nap if you’re sleep-deprived and then get back to work.

If you’re losing focus, but not short of sleep, move. It’ll help you more than extra coffee and stoking yourself with sugar is a mistake. Stretch and walk to the other end of the library at least once an hour. Even better, go for a short jog.

Bouts of movement—typically 15 to 20 minutes at moderate intensity—can measurably boost your mood and cognitive performance. Even 10 minutescan make a difference. Take time to look out the window, especially if you have a view of trees or other greenery. Nature is a good stress-reliever,even if you can’t climb the Himalayas today. If you succeed in a significant goal—maybe reading an entire chapter—treat yourself by a break flying over the Himalayas on Google’s satellite map.

10. Reward yourself.

It’s healthy to set goals and then reward yourself in ways you decide in advance—not French fries, but something you won’t regret later. Facebook is an OK break if you haven’t let it become a substitute for what you meant to do.

11. Students need to learn about finding balance.

This means getting enough sleep, eating regularly and well, exercising, and not becoming too distracted or obsessed by love affairs or social problems. As adults, we, too, need to keep that kind of balance.

12. Don’t depend on drugs or even herbs to make you more focused and productive.

Also don’t indulge in partying in ways that will interfere with the next day.

13. If you’re taking a course, talk to the instructor early on, or an assistant, to know what to expect.

You may be aiming high, so plan on working harder or be realistic about your grade. Suss out what’s most important to the instructor. Establish a connection so you can talk to the instructor if you find yourself falling behind or do badly on a project. Pay attention in class.

14. Recall your original goals and motivations.

Sometimes we lose track of our original impetus once we’re midway through an endeavor. Why did you want to master this material? If you’re resenting the time, money, or difficulty, talk to someone you trust to reorient yourself.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/open-gently/202305/14-great-study-habits-for-a-lifetime