Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 22 2024

1. Ethereum +52% in 5 Days


2. Gold/Oil and Inflation

Barrons
On Friday, May Comex gold settled at a record $2412.20 an ounce, up 32.8% from October. WTI crude, meanwhile, trades around $80 a barrel, up from around $70 a year ago, although off from its short-lived pop over $90 after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel. (For more on the bullish outlook for energy, see “12 Stocks to Play Growing Energy Demand.”)

Looking at what has happened to gold and oil, “the inflation outlook in the coming year is for a large increase,” Ranson concludes from his model.


3. Gold Priced in Yen

Bespoke Investment Group

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-closer-tech-new-highs-fedspeak-build-conference-5-20-24


4. Silver Breaks Out of 5 Year


5. Silver Market Shortages

Commodities: The global silver market is on course for the fourth straight year of shortages.

Source: @markets   Read full article


6. Two Wars but Oil Volatility Measure Hitting New Lows

Dave Lutz Jones Trading
Oil’s implied volatility near lows last seen in 2019 according to one measure, despite ongoing drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and another Houthi attack against a tanker in the Red Sea area over the weekend.


7. Ratio Emerging Markets to U.S.

@Charlie Bilello With China rally, this becomes chart to watch


8. GenAI Demand for Energy

Marketwatch
“Demand for electricity was almost flat for two decades. We are now beginning to see this trend reverse — driven by large customers such as industrial manufacturers, data processors and others who require significant amounts of power,” Fowke said as he spoke before the committee.

He told the panel that a large manufacturing facility just a few years ago might have required the same amount of power as 100,000 homes, but now it’s common for a single data center to need up three times, or even 15 times, that amount of juice.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ai-could-demand-a-shocking-amount-of-electricity-check-out-this-chart-e91e306d?mod=home-page


9. College Sports S-Show

Morningbrew

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


10. Psychologist Adam Grant Says Your Overall Success at Work Comes Down to 3 Familiar Words

The always-brilliant Adam Grant offers a different spin on success and work-life balance.
BY MARCEL SCHWANTES, INC. CONTRIBUTING EDITOR AND FOUNDER, LEADERSHIP FROM THE CORE @MARCELSCHWANTES
 
Adam Grant
Some people subscribe to the idea that work-life balance is critical for achieving success. Wharton organizational psychologist Adam Grant has a different take. He once called work-life balance “mostly a myth” and stressed something else as the key to success. We can boil Grant’s advice down to three words:

Work more hours.  

Let’s put that in the right context. In a previous video posted on the Mic Facebook page, Grant tells viewers, “It’s not to say you have to be a workaholic in order to be successful, although the evidence is strong that one of the ways that people become successful is they just work more hours. Or they work with more intense focus than their peers.”

Grant adds, “But I don’t think that means you can’t have a life. The idea that work-life balance means ‘I show up at 10 a.m. and I’m done by 3 p.m.’ is ridiculous. The successful people I know don’t tend to have very balanced days. They will have a whole day where all they do is work. But then the next day, all they do is spend time with their families.”

Work With More Intense Focus

Grant has a good point, and I have seen a big difference in my own productivity when I work with intense focus, but definitely short of crossing the line into workaholism. That’s not healthy and leads to burnout. So, what’s the key? How do you get that same intense focus to maximize your day and get a ton of stuff done? The best way to do it is to achieve a state of flow.

Flow is a state of mind where time flies by and productivity increases. It’s like hitting that sweet spot where everything just clicks. This mental state was studied by psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, in which we benefit from peak experience and performance, enjoying what we’re doing and performing at our best. It’s being “in the zone” where we are entirely focused, free from distractions, and able to learn, grow, and improve.

Here’s how you can tap into it:

Clear Goals: Start by setting clear, achievable goals for what you want to accomplish. When you know what you’re aiming for, it’s easier to stay focused and engaged.

Challenge Yourself: Find tasks that are just challenging enough to keep you engaged but not so difficult that they overwhelm you. Flow happens when you’re stretched just the right amount.

Eliminate Distractions: Minimize interruptions and distractions as much as possible. Turn off notifications, close unnecessary tabs, and create a quiet workspace where you can concentrate.

Focus on the Task at Hand: Dive deep into what you’re doing. Forget about everything else for a while and immerse yourself completely in the task.

Stay Present: Don’t worry about the past or the future. Focus on the present moment and give your full attention to what you’re doing right now.

Take Breaks: Even though you’re in the zone, remember to take short breaks to rest and recharge. This can help prevent burnout and keep your energy levels up.

Once you find your flow, you’ll be amazed at how much more productive and fulfilled you feel. And to Grant’s point, the next day, you’ll feel like you can take the afternoon off to take the kids to the park or enjoy a bike ride on the beach. This is what having a healthy, productive life looks like. You work your butt off first, and then take time to reward yourself later. It’s what Grant meant when he said, “They will have a whole day where all they do is work. But then the next day, all they do is spend time with their families.”

https://www.inc.com/marcel-schwantes/adam-grant-explains-success-comes-down-to-three-words.html?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=freeform&utm_source=linkedin

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 20 2024

1. Summary of Biden’s China Tariffs

Barrons By Reshma Kapadia

https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-tariffs-biden-trade-war-inflation-trump-e262d3cf?mod=past_editions


2. Shorts Interest in Chinese Markets at Highs

@Callum Thomas (Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm)


3. China Market Outperforming World in 2024

RBA Investments Matthew Poterba, CFA

https://www.rbadvisors.com/insights/chinas-stealth-rally/


4. Emerging Markets ETF

Breaks above 200-week moving average after failing 3x in 2022-2023


5. FXI China Large Cap ETF

FXI about to break above red downtrend line going back to beginning of 2021

www.stockcharts.com


6. The Slowdown of Smartphone Shipments

Barrons Adam Clark

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ai-smartphones-google-android-apple-iphone-9d5399d3?mod=past_editions


7. Chipotle vs. McDonalds….CMG +38% vs. MCD -8% 2024

CMG vs. MCD Chart


8. Used Cars Deepest Drawdown Ever

Michael Batnick

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com


9. World’s Wealthiest Cities

From Barry Ritholtz The Big Picture Blog https://ritholtz.com/2024/05/weekend-reads-615/

World’s Wealthiest Cities Report 2024

Source: Henley & Partners


10. Farnam Street Blog Sunday

FS

“Knowing virtues is like having a map; adopting them is actually taking the journey.” 

 The highest form of leverage is reputation.


Insights

“Without courage we cannot practice any other virtue with consistency. We can’t be kind, true, merciful, generous, or honest.” 

— Maya Angelou 

** 

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already.” 

— Tolstoy 

*** 

“People spend too much time on the last 24 hours and not enough time on the last 6,000 years.” 

— Will Durant 


Tiny Thoughts

The highest form of leverage is reputation. 

** 

Imagine what you could accomplish if you weren’t focused on being right all the time. 

*** 

Reasoning in public forces discipline of thought. 

It’s like doing math on the chalkboard in front of the class. Every step must be clear and correct, or someone will point out the mistake. There’s no room for fuzzy thinking or skipped steps. 

If your reasoning is correct, you have nothing to fear. If it’s wrong, you have everything to learn.

https://fs.blog

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 16 2024

1. Negative Economic Surprises and Interest Rates

The Daily Shot Blog The United States: Negative economic surprises signal lower Treasury yields ahead.

Source: @TheTerminal, Bloomberg Finance L.P.


2. IBIT About to Pass Grayscale GBTC in AUM

From Abnormal Returns Blog

www.abnormalreturns.com


3. $1 Trillion in Government Programs Around Industrial Renaissance….AIRR ETF -First Trust

AIRR New Highs.

Top 10 Holdings -Marketwatch

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/airr/holdings


4. GE Announced Split of Company in November 2021….Spin-Offs Jan 3, 2023

GE +62% Year to Date.


5. Copper Breaks to New Highs


6. Druckenmiller Bets 15% of His Portfolio on Russell 2000 Small Cap Calls….Tom Lee Pick of Year is Small Cap

Here’s what Druckenmiller did as he sold Nvidia — it’s a risky bet on an unloved asset
By Barbara Kollmeyer


The market wanted a reason to rally and got it on Wednesday after data showed slowing inflation and an economy that’s also ratcheting down.
That data combination, in theory, may make it easier for the Fed to justify an interest-rate cut, and the market hopes soonish.

But lower rates could also help another group of stocks, which have a tough run this year — small caps. And one big investor seems ready for this bunch of equities to take off. Our call of the day focuses on billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who just revealed a big bet on the Russell 2000 RUT in a newly released 13-F regulatory filing.
Through his Duquesne Family Office, Druckenmiller invested a 15% chunk of his portfolio in call options on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM in the first quarter. The filing also confirmed the firm reduced holdings in tech names Nvidia NVDA, +3.58%, which Druckenmiller discussed earlier this month, and Seagate Technology STX, +2.60%.
That Russell 2000 bet would indicate that Druckenmiller’s firm smells opportunity for struggling small caps, which investors have struggled to love or even like in recent years.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-druckenmiller-did-as-he-sold-nvidia-its-a-risky-bet-on-an-unloved-asset-2e875f31?mod=dist_amp_social&link=sfmw_tw&redirect=amp

Business Insider-3 reasons an overlooked area of the stock market is poised for 50% gains this year, according to Fundstrat
Tom Lee

“Our top idea for 2024 is small-caps, where we see at least 50% upside,” Fundstrat’s head of research Tom Lee said in a note on Wednesday, noting that small caps are so disdained by the market that even a “wrong-way Charlie” can confidently bet against their success.
Lee, who nailed his 2023 stock market forecast, laid down three fundamental reasons to take a closer look at this unloved segment of the roaring US equities market.
First, Lee notes that Russell 2000 firms are poised for substantial revenue growth, outpacing the S&P 500 by a significant margin in 2025 from 2024 thanks to the Fed’s potential rate cut this year. 

“Now, you may be surprised, but small-caps actually have faster revenue growth. 6.9% versus 5.5%, that’s 140 basis points faster or nearly 25% faster growth, and that’s true in every quintile” Lee said in a video on the topic posted this week. 

Second, Lee also highlighted small-caps’ earnings growth potential, projecting 19% growth is earnings-per-share, outpacing the S&P 500’s 12% EPS growth. He said small-caps have an advantage in their lower P/E ratios compared to large-cap stocks, making them look more affordable to investors. 

Finally, the Fundstrat CEO noted that institutional investors have been dumping small caps for years, making them ripe for a turnaround trade. 
“[M]ulti-cap investors have multi-decade low allocations to small-caps even as small-caps have begun to outperform. We see this performance chasing as a key factor for small-caps to sustain gains,” he added.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-small-caps-surge-outperformance-tom-lee-sp500-2024-3#:~:text=%22Our%20top%20idea%20for%202024,confidently%20bet%20against%20their%20success.


7. Small Cap Trailing S&P Again This Year

Long-Term Weekly Chart….50week thru 200week to upside.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13415427/Europe-gears-war-Nukes-Russias-doorstep-conscription-18-arms-factories-whirring-life-continent-faces-doomsday-WW3-scenario.html


8. Slovakia Prime Minister Shot 5 Times

Slovakia PM Fico’s condition still ‘very serious’ after surgery
By Ayhan Uyanik and Boldizsar Gyori

Item 1 of 7 Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico looks on during a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany, January 24, 2024. REUTERS/Nadja Wohlleben/File Photo

Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico looks on during a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany, January 24, 2024. REUTERS/Nadja Wohlleben/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

  • Summary
  • Slovak PM was shot five times at close range on Wednesday
  • Hospital says his condition is ‘very serious’ but stable
  • Police charge suspect with attempted murder, says website
  • Slovakia’s president, president-elect call for calm
  • Security council, cabinet are meeting on Thursday

BANSKA BYSTRICA, Slovakia, May 16 (Reuters) – Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico was in a “very serious” but stable condition on Thursday, a hospital official said, after he was shot five times in an assassination attempt that has laid bare deep political divisions in the country.
The shooting was the first major assassination attempt on a European political leader for more than 20 years, and spurred international condemnation, with political analysts and lawmakers saying it was indicative of an increasingly febrile and polarised political climate across the continent.
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Slovak President Zuzana Caputova called for a calming of political tensions and said she would invite all parliamentary party leaders for a joint meeting. Fico ally and President-elect Peter Pellegrini urged parties to suspend or tone down their campaigning for next month’s European Parliament elections.
“If there is anything the people of Slovakia urgently need today, it is at least a basic consensus and unity among Slovaks’ political representatives,” said Pellegrini, who won an April election for the mainly ceremonial post of president.
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News website tvnoviny.sk reported on Thursday that police had charged the suspect with attempted murder and that he could face life imprisonment.
Miriam Lapunikova, director of the F.D. Roosevelt University Hospital in Banska Bystrica where Fico is being treated, said the 59-year-old prime minister had undergone five hours of surgery with two teams to treat multiple gunshot wounds.
“At this point his condition is stabilised but is truly very serious, he will be in the intensive care unit,” she told reporters.
Slovakia PM Fico’s condition still ‘very serious’ after surgery | Reuters


9. Longer-Term Perspective on Crime..Violent Crime in the U.S. Since 1990s Big Dowtrend

Pew Research

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us


10. Choose Not To Be Harmed-The Daily Stoic Blog

Choose not to be harmed — and you won’t feel harmed. Don’t feel harmed — and you haven’t been.”

This passage has been highlighted by 11,590 readers in the Kindle edition of Gregory Hays’ translation of Meditations. It’s the most popular quote in the most popular edition (we think that it’s the best edition too).

The reason it resonates is that it articulates in simple terms a timely and timeless truth that is as empowering as it is profound: it’s not events themselves that cause our suffering but how we choose to interpret them. Events are objective, our interpretations are not. They are a guess, a story, an opinion as to what’s happened and what it means, and whether or not our actions are governed by those instant interpretations is a good indicator of exactly how stoically we’re behaving.

Remember Epictetus’s famous observation that every situation has two handles—or two interpretations—and that we choose which one to grab. We decide what story to tell ourselves. We decide how we react. We decide to feel harmed or to not feel harmed. And once we make that choice–choosing not to be offended, choosing to see an opportunity to practice a virtue–then we really haven’t been harmed.

There’s a reason so many people have highlighted that passage. It’s because it’s true.

https://dailystoic.com/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 15 2024

1. Mag 7 ETF Re-Balanced to Equal Weight Quarterly …New Highs

 

2. Increase in Capital Spending from Big 3

The Big Picture Blog

https://ritholtz.com/2024/05/weekend-reads-614/


3. The Biggest Capex of All=Global Energy

Scott Galloway Prof G Blog

https://www.profgalloway.com/big-energy/


4. Home Depot Chart

A chart to watch regarding rates, inflation and consumer spending. Home Depot -17% correction, 3rd pullback to 200-day


5. Gas Prices Down 3 Weeks in a Row Going into Summer Season

Advisor Perspectives Blog by Jennifer Nash

Gas prices are down for a third straight week. As of May 13th, the price of regular and premium gas fell 3 and 4 cents from the previous week, respectively. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for regular at $5.25 and Mississippi has the cheapest at $3.05.

Currently, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline stands at $3.61 with premium gasoline averaging $4.51 per gallon. One year ago, regular gas was priced at $3.54 per gallon, while premium gas was at $4.36 per gallon.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/05/14/gasoline-prices-down-for-3rd-straight-week


6. U.S. Consumer Bankruptcies at Lows

Wolf Street Bankruptcies continue to scrape along the historic bottom, with just 121,000 consumers with bankruptcies in Q1, compared to the already low levels of the Good Times of around 200,000:

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/05/14/household-debt-delinquencies-collections-and-bankruptcies-the-free-money-era-is-over-for-our-not-so-drunken-sailors/


7. NATO Wargames and Increased Military Spending

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13415427/Europe-gears-war-Nukes-Russias-doorstep-conscription-18-arms-factories-whirring-life-continent-faces-doomsday-WW3-scenario.html


8. Winning States from the Inflation Reduction Act

Barrons By Joe Light

https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-biden-poll-election-2024-news-98d4da11?mod=past_editions


9. Bringing the Multi-Level Marketing Model to Day Trading


10. Why We Love Music

Greater Good Magazine
Researchers are discovering how music affects the brain, helping us to make sense of its real emotional and social power.

BY JILL SUTTIE

I still remember when I first heard the song by Peter Gabriel, “Solsbury Hill.” Something about that song—the lyrics, the melody, the unusual 7/4 time signature—gave me chills. Even now, years later, it still can make me cry.

Who among us doesn’t have a similar story about a song that touched us? Whether attending a concert, listening to the radio, or singing in the shower, there’s something about music that can fill us with emotion, from joy to sadness.

Music impacts us in ways that other sounds don’t, and for years now, scientists have been wondering why. Now they are finally beginning to find some answers. Using fMRI technology, they’re discovering why music can inspire such strong feelings and bind us so tightly to other people.
“Music affects deep emotional centers in the brain, “ says Valorie Salimpoor, a neuroscientist at McGill University who studies the brain on music. “A single sound tone is not really pleasurable
in itself; but if these sounds are organized over time in some sort of arrangement, it’s amazingly powerful.”

How music makes the brain happy
How powerful? In one of her studies, she and her colleagues hooked up participants to an fMRI machine and recorded their brain activity as they listened to a favorite piece of music. During peak emotional moments in the songs identified by the listeners, dopamine was released in the nucleus accumbens, a structure deep within the older part of our human brain.
“That’s a big deal, because dopamine is released with biological rewards, like eating and sex, for example,” says Salimpoor. “It’s also released with drugs that are very powerful and addictive, like cocaine or amphetamines.”

There’s another part of the brain that seeps dopamine, specifically just before those peak emotional moments in a song: the caudate nucleus, which is involved in the anticipation of pleasure. Presumably, the anticipatory pleasure comes from familiarity with the song—you have a memory of the song you enjoyed in the past embedded in your brain, and you anticipate the high points that are coming. This pairing of anticipation and pleasure is a potent combination, one that suggests we are biologically-driven to listen to music we like.

But what happens in our brains when we like something we haven’t heard before? To find out, Salimpoor again hooked up people to fMRI machines. But this time she had participants listen to unfamiliar songs, and she gave them some money, instructing them to spend it on any music they liked.
When analyzing the brain scans of the participants, she foundthat when they enjoyed a new song enough to buy it, dopamine was again released in the nucleus accumbens. But, she also found increased interaction between the nucleus accumbens and higher, cortical structures of the brain involved in pattern recognition, musical memory, and emotional processing.

This finding suggested to her that when people listen to unfamiliar music, their brains process the sounds through memory circuits, searching for recognizable patterns to help them make predictions about where the song is heading. If music is too foreign-sounding, it will be hard to anticipate the song’s structure, and people won’t like it—meaning, no dopamine hit. But, if the music has some recognizable features—maybe a familiar beat or melodic structure—people will more likely be able to anticipate the song’s emotional peaks and enjoy it more. The dopamine hit comes from having their predictions confirmed—or violated slightly, in intriguing ways.

“It’s kind of like a roller coaster ride,” she says, “where you know what’s going to happen, but you can still be pleasantly surprised and enjoy it.”

Salimpoor believes this combination of anticipation and intense emotional release may explain why people love music so much, yet have such diverse tastes in music—one’s taste in music is dependent on the variety of musical sounds and patterns heard and stored in the brain over the course of a lifetime. It’s why pop songs are, well, popular—their melodic structures and rhythms are fairly predictable, even when the song is unfamiliar—and why jazz, with its complicated melodies and rhythms, is more an acquired taste. On the other hand, people tend to tire of pop music more readily than they do of jazz, for the same reason—it can become too predictable.

Her findings also explain why people can hear the same song over and over again and still enjoy it. The emotional hit off of a familiar piece of music can be so intense, in fact, that it’s easily re-stimulated even years later.

“If I asked you to tell me a memory from high school, you would be able to tell me a memory,” says Salimpoor. “But, if you listened to a piece of music from high school, you would actually feel the emotions.”

Read Full Article
https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/why_we_love_music

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 May 14 2024

1. Gamestop +240% One-Month

Dave Lutz Jones Trading KITTY ROARS– Wall Street is feeling meme stock déjà vu.  An army of small investors this week have been driving up the price of GameStop, the video game retailer whose enormous 2021 rally led to fame for the stock’s chief social-media savvy booster (Keith Gill, known as Roaring Kitty), a Netflix series and a movie, a congressional hearing, an investigation by securities regulators — and steep losses for those who mistimed the stock’s rapid rise and fall.


2. List of Short Squeeze Candidates

J.C. Parets All Star Charts

https://allstarcharts.com/about/jc-parets


3. Blackrock 60/40 No New Highs Yet


4. Utilities +19% in 3 Months


5. Another U.S. Dominance Chart


6. Wind and Solar Scaled Up Fast

https://www.carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar-are-fastest-growing-electricity-sources-in-history


7. 40% of Homes Mortgage Free

The transmission mechanism of monetary policy is weaker because a rising share of US homes don’t have a mortgage, and about half of all mortgages have an interest rate locked-in below 4%, see charts below.

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Partner


8. No Shock with Rates Higher and Post-Covid Boom Hangover….Second Home Sales at 6-Year Low


9. The Economics of $15 Salad….Sweetgreen in Red


10. Absenteeism Chicago Teachers