Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 15 2024

1. First Decrease in Inflation in 4 Years


2. Inflation by Sub-Sectors

First 2 chart today from Spilled Coffee Blog
https://www.spilledcoffee.co/


3. Equal Weight Outperformance Thursday was Third-Best Ever

Still on long way to go vs cap weight.

Bespoke https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-closer-cpi-sparks-epic-rotation-7-11-24


4. French Luxury Companies 30-Year Earnings Growth as Strong as Tech


5. From Market Ear-NVDA Stat

Market Ear “Since Start of 2023, 97% of NVDA returns have been driven by greater earnings vs 3% from valuation expansion.  However, year to date, NVDA NTM/PE Ratio has increased from 25x to 42X, accounting for 56% of the 165% YTD return.”

https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


6. Tech Companies Went from 5% of S&P Capex Spending to 25%

Capital Group

AI fever: Has it gotten too hot? | Capital Group


7. New World Order Semiconductors vs. Transports

Historically, Bulls did not happen without transports stocks.  Below is semiconductors vs. transports:


8. China 60% of World Steel Market

https://www.barrons.com/articles/biden-trump-steel-tariffs-c44f4279?mod=past_editions


9. World Billionaires

WSJ By Tripti Lahiri

https://www.wsj.com/world/india/100-million-wedding-puts-crazy-rich-indians-in-spotlight-604fc704


10. Are These Bad Habits Ruining Your Brain?

3 simple ways to build a better brain at any age. Melissa Burkley Ph.D.

KEY POINTS

  • Sleep, exercise, and a healthy diet all contribute to brain health—as do these underappreciated tips.
  • Avoid sensory overload and focus on one task at a time for peak performance.
  • Prioritize spending time with people face-to-face. 
  • Hearing loss is associated with dementia. Protect your hearing by wearing earplugs around loud noise.

We live in an era where people are increasingly concerned about protecting their brain health. Unfortunately, we also live in an era where our technology and daily habits are rewiring our brains in unhealthy ways. Experts agree that the modern lifestyle poses a serious risk to our gray matter, chipping away at our neurons and making our brains slower, less creative, and less productive.
If we want to preserve our brains, now and for years to come, we are going to have to tweak our lifestyle. You probably already know that poor sleep, poor diet, and poor exercise put your brain at risk, so I’m not going to repeat those here. Instead, let’s examine some often overlooked habits that threaten your brain health and identify some simple fixes.

1. Avoid Sensory Overload
Think about the sheer number of information bites your brain has to juggle in a typical day. Now compare that number to what your parents had to deal with when they were your age.
We are living in a golden age of sensory overload. Emails, texts, Twitter feeds, Instagram, 24-hour news, 24-hour streaming, 24-hour everything! This constant stream of information means our brains rarely get a chance to process something before five other things are on its heels.
“No problem,” you might say, “I’m great at multitasking.” But you are wrong. Research has shown time and again that despite what people claim, multitasking always leads to poorer performance. Even worse, it dulls the brain. According to a study conducted at Gresham College, just having an email sitting unread in your inbox while you try to concentrate on a task can damage your problem-solving performance by an equivalent of 10 IQ points.
As MIT neuroscience Earl Miller explains, the human brain is “not wired to multitask well… When people think they’re multitasking, they’re actually just switching from one task to another very rapidly. And every time they do, there’s a cognitive cost in doing so.”
We think we are expert jugglers, keeping all of the balls churning in the air. But really, we are more like a novice who can only keep one ball going at a time. When our attention is focused on one ball, all the others come crashing down.
Once you accept that efficient multitasking is a myth, you can better identify ways to protect your precious brain energy. Be mindful of how you consume media throughout the day. Instead of checking your emails at all times of the day, consider relegating this task to a few time slots (for example, once in the morning and once in the afternoon). And look for creative ways to guard your brain against unnecessary information, especially during times when you want peak brain performance. For example, consider using apps that limit your most tempting distractions during designated hours.

2. Too Much FaceTime, Not Enough Face Time
Face-to-face interactions were already on the decline when the pandemic hit, and lockdown only made this trend worse. Before the pandemic, the average American adult spent 17 hours a day glued to a screen, be it a TV (4.5 hours), computer (5 hours), or gaming system (3 hours). That adds up to 6,259 hours a year, which constitutes an average of 44 years of your life staring at a screen!
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Digital tools are quickly replacing physical interaction, and while this makes remote work easier, it isn’t benefiting our brains. Human brains are hard-wired for social, face-to-face interactions. Social interactions encourage neuronal growth and give our brains opportunities to forge new connections. One University of Michigan study found that just 10 minutes of daily face-to-face conversation led to marked improvements in cognitive performance and memory. Social interaction also decreases loneliness and depression, both of which threaten brain health.
Look for ways to unplug from your electronics and include doses of social interaction throughout the day. Have a regularly scheduled sit-down dinner with your family and ban all phones from the table. Take regular walks with loved ones, which allows you to get two brain boosts in one: social connection and exercise. While the pandemic continues, join a social group online and once lockdown is over, make this activity face-to-face.

3. Protect Your Hearing
People often overlook how the brain’s next-door neighbors, the ears, play a vital role in cognitive health. But if you think about it, hearing is one of the most important ways your brain receives information from the external world. Anything that makes that information more difficult to process means your brain has to work extra hard to complete its task. No wonder then that hearing loss in older adults is associated with having less gray matter and a greater likelihood of dementia.
Sadly, hearing problems are on the rise. One in four American adults now shows signs of noise-induced hearing loss, making it the third most common chronic health condition (just after diabetes and cancer). We talk a lot about protecting our health by wearing sunscreen, using condoms, eating healthy, and exercising, but rarely do we discuss protecting our hearing.
The government isn’t doing much to regulate noise pollution these days and hopefully, that will change, but in the meantime, here are a few things you can do:

  • Wearing ear protection while mowing your lawn or using other high-decibel machinery
  • Wear earplugs at concerts
  • Wear noise-canceling headphones on airplanes
  • Keep the volume on all your electronic equipment to a minimum (Tip: If you can hold your headphones an arm’s length and still hear the music, your volume is too high)
  • Embrace the joy of silence and schedule noise-free breaks throughout the day

For more quick tips on how to boost your brain health, check out my earlier article. Looking for an even deeper dive into this topic? Check out Dr. Sanjay Gupta’s excellent bookKeep Sharp: Build a Better Brain at Any Age.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-social-thinker/202103/are-these-bad-habits-ruining-your-brain

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 11 2024

1. Venture Funding of AI Start-Ups Doubles

From Dave Lutz at Jones Trading


2. America’s startup boom is still going strong. Here’s what it means for the economy

NPR Greg Rosalsky

What’s driving the boom
Haltiwanger says that, basically, two big buckets of new businesses are being created these days.

New businesses in the first bucket are capitalizing on a huge post-pandemic population shift. Many office workers are now either fully remote or hybrid. “People are not spending five days a week at the office in major downtown areas,” Haltiwanger says. Where people spend their time, they spend their money. Bad news for businesses in downtown areas. Good news for businesses where office workers live.

Sponsor Message
That’s why one of the big areas for new business growth is in food and accommodations, particularly in the outskirts of cities. Haltiwanger, together with Ryan Decker, calls this “the donut effect.” There’s now a hole lacking vibrant economic activity in many major business districts, and a delicious fried dough of new business opportunities in the suburbs surrounding them. Office workers need their doughnuts, coffee and sandwiches near their office, which is now more often at home.

However, if the story of the new business boom were limited to just delis, gyms and doughnut shops in suburban areas, the upside would be somewhat limited. Sure, remote and hybrid work is a revolutionary change for a large fraction of the workforce, but the business boom it has fed could be seen as mostly just a geographic reshuffling of economic activity. Fewer coffee shops in Manhattan. More in New Jersey or Brooklyn. That would likely have only a limited upside for the economy.

That’s why Haltiwanger is much more excited about the other big bucket of new businesses he has identified in the data: tech startups. This boom is proving, he says, to be the most persistent. These tech startups come in many stripes, but one subcategory has really caught his and other economists’ attention: startups working in artificial intelligence.

“I think we’re in a new tech wave,” Haltiwanger says. “I think AI is the poster child of this.”

https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2024/07/02/g-s1-7139/economy-startup-boom-america-productivity  Found at Barry Ritholtz Big Picture Blog https://ritholtz.com/2024/07/weekend-reads-617/


3. Roaring Kitty and CHWY

CHWY rally did not get back to 2023 levels…All-time high was $120 in 2021


4. Tesla’s Share of U.S. Electric Car Market Falls Below 50%

NYT By Jack Ewing
Tesla accounted for 49.7 percent of electric vehicles sales from April through June, down from 59.3 percent a year earlier as the company led by Elon Musk lost ground to General Motors, Ford Motor, Hyundai and Kia, the research firm, Cox Automotive said. It was the first time the company’s market share fell below 50 percent in a quarter, according to Cox. The firm, a leading auto industry researcher, estimates market share based on registrations, company reports and other data.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/09/business/tesla-electric-vehicles-market-share.html#:~:text=A%20new%20report%20estimates%20that,second%20quarter%20of%20the%20year.


5. Not Yet But Small Cap Tech PSCT Good Chart to Watch


6. More Mag 7 Market Cap Stats

Blackrock Insights

https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/outlook


7. AI Power Demand May Grow by 10X

The Surging Problem of AI Energy Consumption-By Kelly Barner
 
On April 9th, Rene Haas, CEO at British semiconductor and software design company Arm Holdings, made a statement about data center energy consumption ahead of a partnership announcement with U.S. and Japan-based universities. 
As Haas said, “by the end of the decade, AI data centers could consume as much as 20% to 25% of U.S. power requirements. Today that’s probably 4% or less.”

25 percent of all power consumed in the United States might go to data processing in less than 6 years. No wonder all of the interest in AI and advanced computing has been driving up the stock prices of companies that own power plants: Vistra is up by 84 percent and Constellation Energy by 63 percent.

Many of the sources I consulted in preparation for this episode reference a report from The International Energy Agency. Titled simply Electricity 2024: Analysis and Forecast to 2026, this 170 page report is full of data points, analysis, and projections.

For instance, the report states that a request to ChatGPT (one of the most popular examples of generative AI widely available today) requires an average 2.9 watt-hours of electricity. That is equivalent to turning on a 60-watt light bulb for about three minutes. That is nearly 10 times as much energy as the average Google search. 

If that doesn’t have your mind spinning, AI power demand is expected to grow by at least 10X between 2023 and 2026.
Companies that are heavily invested in the AI and data processing space are well aware of this problem. Microsoft and Google have well defined plans to achieve net negative emissions (forget net zero). Apple aspires to be net neutral globally, including their supply chains, by 2030. 

How they are all going to hit those targets without changing something about AI energy consumption is a mystery to me.

AI’s Insatiable Need for Energy
AI runs on GPUs (short for (graphics processing units), a type of chip used to process large amounts of data. Processing requirements and energy consumption increase when the AI is responding to a query. The more complex the model or the larger the dataset, the more energy must be consumed to complete the job.

In addition, queries involving imagery are more energy intensive than those focused on text. Generating one image using AI can use the same amount of energy as charging a smartphone according to researchers at Hugging Face, a collaborative AI platform. 

Energy isn’t just consumed when we use AI; it is also consumed when the AI is being trained. 
Alex de Vries, a data scientist and a Ph.D. candidate at Vrije University Amsterdam talks about a training phase v an inference phase. Training is the process of setting up the model and teaching it how to learn on its own, while inference is when you feed it scenarios to test it and refine how it works.

ChatGPT it took relatively little energy to train, but a lot to do inference, which makes sense, because it had to learn to do a lot of complex things in a very human-friendly way. 

ChatGPT-3 was the one cited as consuming about 10 times as much energy per query as a Google search. GPT-4 probably uses more power because it has more parameters and is a larger model.

https://artofprocurement.com/supply/the-surging-problem-of-ai-energy-consumption/


8. Rents Falling in Florida-Redfin

https://www.redfin.com/news/rents-fall-in-florida-austin-june-2024


9. F-16 Transfers to the Ukraine

Axios Jacob Knutson

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/ukraine-russia-f16-jets-nato-summit


10. 80% of Adults Want Parental Consent Around Social Medial-Prof G Blog

Peer Pressure-Prof G-Scott Galloway

Age-gating social media is hugely popular. Over 80% of adults believe parental consent should be required for social media, and almost 70% want platforms to limit the time minors spend on them.

https://www.profgalloway.com/age-gating

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 10 2024

1. Concentrated Stock Rally Update…Highest Since 1972

Ned Davis


2. Cap Weight vs. Equal Weight Hits 2000 Level

Bespoke Investment Group

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/research/think-big-blog


3. The Last 30 Days Has Narrowed the Market Even More

Michael Batnick Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/always-hard-beat-market


4. We Shall See….Mag 7 Earnings Projected to Slow.

Business Insider Jennifer Sor

https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-where-to-invest-investing-strategy-ai-economy-jpmorgan-2024-7


5. How Hard is De-Globalization and Onshoring?  AAPL Phone Uses Parts from 43 Countries.

AAPL straight up since AI announcements


6. Core PCE is Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure….Trending to 2%


7. KRE Regional Bank ETF Stuck Below 200-Week Moving Average Since February 2023


8. Will Regional Bank Commercial Real Estate  Move into Private Equity Hands?

Bloomberg Neil Callanan-
John Brady, global head of real estate at Oaktree, is similarly blunt about what’s ahead: “We could be on the precipice of one of the most significant real estate distressed investment cycles of the last 40 years,” he wrote in a recent note on the US. “Few asset classes are as unloved as commercial real estate and thus we believe there are few better places to find exceptional bargains.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-commercial-property-crash-set-103000002.html


9. Used Car and Truck Prices Giving Back Covid Spike.

Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET
Used Car & Truck Prices Spiral Down Further in Historic Plunge, Surrender 60% of Stunning 2-year Spike
But used EV prices still +61% from Jan. 2020, used ICE vehicles +31%. When will they bottom out? Compact cars approach affordability again.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/09/used-car-truck-prices-spiral-down-further-in-historic-plunge-surrender-60-of-stunning-2-year-spike


10. Warren Buffett Solves Deficit in One Sentence

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 09 2024

1.The U.S. Now Produces More Energy Than It Consumes

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management 
For the first time in more than sixty years, US energy production is now higher than US energy consumption, see chart below.

 

2. Nasdaq Advance/Decline Line Image on Concentration of Stock Returns

A/D vs. NASDAQ index, showing a major gap & indicating just a few stocks are driving the entire index (Source: Zero Hedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/disconnect-between-market-valuation-and-economic-reality-couldnt-be-more-apparent


3. But Earnings Season Projected Positive…Forward Earnings for S&P Rising

MarketEar

https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


4. Software ETF Break-Out to New Highs.

Software IGV Chart


5. Jobs Numbers Should Push Fed to Lower Rates

 


6. Short-Term Bonds Price Rising

Are short-term bonds pricing in rate cuts…50week thru 200week on long-term chart?


7. Intel Received Biggest Direct Investment from Chips Act

 

Chips Act has been no help to chart…Held support levels and bounced 10% in 5 days.


8. Wind Passes Coal for U.S. Electricity 


9. These Are the Best U.S. National Parks—and They’re Not Even That Crowded

WSJ By Emily Pennington and Tom Corrigan

https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/travel/best-uncrowded-national-parks-5a65e80a


10. Ranking the Best TV Shows of All-Time

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 08 2024

1. Last 10 Years Post July 4th

Bespoke Investment Group- The next chart shows the consistency of positive returns for the S&P 500 and all eleven sectors. Here again, Energy is the only exception to the trend of consistency over the following three months not being worse than the one month.  Additionally, the only sectors that have experienced positive returns more than 50% of the time for both periods are Financials and Technology.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/the-best-of-times-the-worst-of-times

2. 500 Days Since the Last 2% Down Move in the S&P

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright
We have gone 500 days since the last 2% down move for SPX (2/21/2023). This is the fourth longest streak since April 1987 and will move into the third-longest if we do not see a 2% drop in the next 11 calendar days. Going so long without a 2% drop seems unnatural and has been highlighted as a point of potential concern for some investors going into the second half of the year. A worried investor may suggest that since we have gone so long without a 2% daily decline, we’re just increasing our likelihood for more 2% declines soon. Not necessarily true.
Most of the 2% days happen within close proximity to another 2% day. Only 336 trading days since April 1987 have seen a 2% decline in SPX, which equates to roughly 3.5% of total trading days. Out of those 336 days, 206 instances occurred within two weeks of another 2% down day. That skews the averages to favor more frequent events annually. Several periods saw multiple extended runs between 2% down days. Only eight 2% down days occurred from August 1991 to March 1997, including three consecutive stretches with more than 350 days between events. There were 10 such events from June 2012 to June 2015, with six of those seeing at least 100 days between events. We are eventually going to see another 2% daily drop in SPX, but that doesn’t mean we have to “catch-up” to the 16 day annual average for such events.

https://data.nasdaq.com/publishers/NDW


3. Hedge Funds Increasing Small Cap Shorts


4. You Thought Active Managers Can’t Beat the Market 


5. Higher Rates Equals Less Pools

POOL stock back to 2022 correction levels…-30% from 2024 highs


6. Dow Transports -4% 2024

Tech dominating market…This chart shows Dow Tranports versus S&P..straight down since mid-2023


7. Lumber Prices Sideways -75% from Highs

Lumber 18 month sideways channel…see which way it breaks.


8. Lumber Hit $1700 in 2021


9. Close to 50% of America Would Remove Both Presidential Candidates

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-expands-lead-over-biden-after-debate-as-voters-age-worries-grow-wsj-poll-finds-c3a793ab


10. Get Over Fear of Losing Money

On Fear

Get over the fear of losing money so you can make money
Money and fear. For so many of us, they go hand in hand.

  •  Some people fear losing the money they have
  • Other people fear that they won’t be able to make money again in the future

It’s natural to fear loss. I’ve been there. I lost close to two-thirds of my money within a year when I first started investing. 
It’s painful to lose a significant amount of money. And that fear of loss has affected me so badly in the past that I became afraid of getting back into investing.
This same fear makes many people avoid the stock market. But if we let this fear control us, we will never take any risk.
Just like in any other aspect of life, there will always be risks involved when it comes to wealth building. Whether that’s in the stock market, real estate, or starting a business – you can always lose money.
But the problem is that we often get too fearful. And as a result, we never even invest. If we do invest, we don’t invest nearly enough.
End result: You leave a lot of money on the table.
Look, we’ve all hear the same old story of, “Many of the richest people in the world built their wealth with stocks.”
Think of Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk. All their wealth is created through the stock market.
We also can invest in stocks. But for some reason, we get fearful.

  • “What if I lose my money?”
  • “What if there’s a recession?”
  • “What if the dollar collapses?”
  • “What if there’s another war or pandemic?”

I get it. I’ve had those thoughts too. Especially if you spend some time on social media, you think the world is about to end.
But just look at the past 100 years. We’ve dealt with world wars, natural disasters, recessions, pandemics, currency issues, elections, social unrest… and yet, the stock market has gone up through everything.
What’s going to stop it if those things can’t stop it?
We need to overcome the fear of loss if we want to build long-term wealth. After all, when it comes to passive investing, losses are only temporary. 
Marcus Aurelius said this about time:
“Time is like a river made up of the events which happen, and a violent stream; for as soon as a thing has been seen, it is carried away, and another comes in its place, and this will be carried away too.” 
In a similar way, the stock market is also like a river, which keeps flowing no matter what’s going on in the world. Sometimes the current is faster or wilder than other times. But the river always flows in the same direction.
The stock market experiences its ups and downs, but on the whole, it keeps going up.
Those ups and downs are natural. Something temporary. 
Acceptance of this nature takes away our fear of investing. When we zoom out and stop looking at the day to day moves, we realize that it’s more costly to not invest.
The main takeaway from the Stoics is this: Never fear something that’s natural.
Next week, we’ll see how we can combine the skill of managing both fear and greed to become a more consistent investor.
All the best.
-Darius  https://dariusforoux.com/stoic-and-wealthy/