Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 November 20, 2024

1. Returns Since Election Day


2. Ethereum ETF Flows Post Election $240m

Ethereum ETF flows. “Ethereum ETFs have made a quick and sudden rise from the deep dark depths of cumulative outflows following the Election, finally into fresh air and net inflows.”


3. Small Cap Gives Gains Back Again

MarketEar Blog


4. Mexican Peso vs. U.S. Dollar Straight Down…Tariff Fear


5. British Pound to U.S. Dollar Straight Down


6. History of S&P for Re-Elected Presidents


7. JPMorgan Tech Chair Expects Faster Regulatory Reviews, More IPOs -Bloomberg

By Sonali Basak and Ryan Gould 
There are hundreds of private technology companies waiting for the market for initial public offerings to open up, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. global chair of technology investment banking, with clarity on the US election expected to provide a shot in the arm for listing hopefuls.“When we look at our analysis, we have about 750 quality companies in tech alone that want to get out,” Madhu Namburi said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Sixty to 70 companies go public in a normal year. That’s a lot of backlog.”With the election in the rearview mirror, the market is showing signs of wanting to reward companies prioritizing growth as opposed to just profitability, Namburi said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-19/jpmorgan-tech-chair-expects-faster-regulatory-reviews-more-ipos?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=GGda9y2L


8. SMCI Needs to Hold These Levels

SMCI holding around 200-week moving average and 2023 lows.


9. America Needs Housing Supply

Trump Should Bring On a Great American Housing Boom by The Editors of Bloomberg News11/19/24
First, the administration should encourage a wave of rezoning and deregulation at state and local levels, which is the source of most of the friction. In his first term, Trump promised an effort along these lines and established a council to study the problem. This time around, he should act on its recommendations, including by helping local governments dial back costly requirements such as parking minimums and minimum lot sizes and speed up permitting. Perhaps the “freedom cities” Trump says he wants to build on federal land (details TBD) might be exemplars in this regard.

More prosaically, the administration should change federal policies that needlessly raise the cost of construction. This could include reducing certain tariffs — such as those on Canadian lumber, which were sharply increased during the Biden administration — as well as expediting environmental reviews and reducing red tape. To help address the 288,000 job openings in construction, up from an average of 190,000 since 2000, Trump could create incentives for community colleges and vocational schools to provide relevant training and offer more visas for qualified immigrants.
Finally, Trump has promised to reduce interest rates, which would certainly help make housing more affordable

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2024/11/19/trump-bring-great-american-housing-boom


10. Retired Navy SEAL Jocko Willink shares 5 go-to exercises to get stronger and live longer with minimal equipment -Business Insider

Jocko Willink starts his day at 4:30 a.m. with a workout, a habit he picked up in the Navy SEALs. Courtesy of Jocko WillinkGabby Landsverk 
Nov 19, 2024, 7:45 AM EST

  • Jocko Willink, a retired Navy SEAL and Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt, works out up to 3 hours a day.
  • He varies his exercises to stay healthy long-term and avoid having any athletic weaknesses.
  • Exercises like push-ups, squats, and rucking are a part of his routine for overall strength and stamina.

Whether you want to build muscle, burn fat, or live longer, some of the simplest exercises are the best place to start, according to retired Navy SEAL Jocko Willink.
Willink, a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu, said he wakes up at 4:30 a.m. every day to work out for up to three hours. He varies the exercises to avoid having any major weaknesses as an athlete, and more importantly, to keep him ready for any challenge life throws at him.
“There is no more important strategic goal in our lives than staying healthy,” he told Business Insider.
While he has a massive garage gym, Willink said the most tried-and-true exercises require minimal equipment.
Movements like pull-ups, squats, sprints, and rucking (carrying weight) can help you put in the work without overcomplicating your workouts. The latest research also suggests that the benefits of these movements — getting stronger, improving your resilience, and boosting heart health — can help you live longer, too.
“Going back to the basics and doing things that have been used for decades is a solid way to go,” Willink said. “You can never go wrong with those.”
Bodyweight exercises can build strength and muscle without a gym
For getting stronger and more muscular, it’s hard to beat bodyweight movements like pull-ups, push-ups, and dips, Willink said.
They work the major muscle groups in the upper body and core, improve stability, and don’t require much equipment beyond a bar or bench.
Do enough of them, and you can also raise your heart rate enough to get some cardio benefits.
Scaling exercises like push-ups to make them easier can help you get the benefits even as a fitness beginner. And if you’re still working up to your first pull-up, starter movements like eccentrics can help you get there.
Squats are key for a strong lower body  For stronger legs and overall fitness, squats have big benefits: building your glutes, hamstrings and quads, strengthening your core, and improving stability.
Willink said he does squats for better mobility, too, since using a full range of motion can help keep the joints like the hips, knees, and ankles strong and healthy.
“When I squat, I’m squatting all the way down,” he said.
Burpees offer a quick workout on the go Willink said he travels quite a bit, but doesn’t slack off on the road and will wake up and hit 100 burpees in his hotel room if necessary.
“There are definitely days that I try to figure out a way to just move. You’ve got to do some minimum work,” he said.
Burpees offer a total-body workout for explosiveness and endurance in just a few minutes.
If you hate them, lean into it; it pays to put your ego aside and work on your weaknesses, according to Willink.
“One of the key components here is that what we need to do as people is watch out for the things you don’t like doing,” he said.
Sprint intervals can boost your explosive power and cardio  Willink said he incorporates running, rowing, swimming and other cardio into his workouts, but not only as long, steady endurance sessions.
He also does repeated short, explosive efforts to keep his skillset as versatile as possible.
“I want to be able to do a bunch of different things but at the same time, I don’t want to lose a movement or an area where I’m ridiculously weak.” he said. “But if I would go to extremes and become a marathon runner, I’d be smaller and lighter and my ability to do jiu jitsu would be weaker.”
Rucking offers full-body benefits  Willink is a big fan of a military-based exercise called rucking, which involves walking, hiking, or running with a weighted back.
Rucking has become a hot fitness trend outside the military for people who want to build muscle, burn fat, and improve their stamina all at once.
He uses a 75-85 pound pack, but you don’t need to go that heavy to start rucking. An ordinary backpack with books, water bottles, or similar weight can work.
Willink said he’s glad to see the exercise getting more popular, since it taps into a basic human movement and a mindset of tackling challenges.
“You’re going to experience some suffering and you have to push through it,” he said. “It’s hard but it’s meditative. You don’t have to think about it. It’s the simplest movement that humans do,” Willink said.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 November 19, 2024

1. Trump Sector Trade Update


2. Semis -7% Since October 17th

Equities: Semiconductor stocks pulled key indices lower on Friday.

Source: The Daily Shot


3. SMH Chart at 200-Day—NVDA Reports Wed

SMH 3rd time since Summer testing 200-day


4. Forward P/E Ratios vs. Recent Post Election

Ritholtz Wealth


5. Regional Bank ETF Break-Out

KRE-bullish triangle then breakout


6. Trump Bear Trade Biotech

BBH ETF-close below 200-day on high volume -13%


7. Sector Returns Over Business Cycles

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-top-performing-sp-500-sectors-over-the-business-cycle/


8. 30-Year Bond Price Back to July Levels

30 Year Price -10% since Sept highs.


9. Federal Government Workforce Little Growth Over 60 Years

Chartr.com


10. Government Spending Per Capita

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 November 18, 2024

1. Large Money Managers Max Overweight Stocks

Fund Manager Survey: Likewise, the BofA fund manager survey (1-7 Nov), also saw a surge; not quite to all time highs on this one, but a clear bullish shift among these larger real money investors.

Source: @Callum_Thomas


2. Aerospace and Defense ETF New Highs


3. BABA Round Trip

$85 to $115 …headed back to $85

 


4. JFK Jr. and Big Pharma

Pharma ETF -15%…


5. Weight Loss Drugs Getting Competitive….LLY -22% Correction

 


6. Venture Capital Negative Net Cash Flows

Pitchbook


7. India Stock ETF Closes Below 200-Day Moving Average


8. Inflation Breakdown


9. History of Immigrant Deportations

 

Immigrant Deportations: Trends and Impacts

10. Live Event Attendance Hitting Highs-Chartr Blog

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 November 15, 2024

1. Average P/E Ratio of Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks

Torsten Slok Apollo


2. Software Stocks +13% in 7 Sessions


3. Rotation to Software vs. Semis

Marketwatch By Emily Bary

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-earnings-are-a-test-for-chip-stocks-as-software-has-stolen-the-limelight-8b5f54b8?mod=home-page


4. Shopify Spike Higher vs. All-Time Highs


5. Amazon New Highs Launches Competition for TEMU and SHEIN

Morningbrew


6. Bonds Higher Yield than Stocks for First Time in 22 Years


7. Junior Gold Miners -18% Since Election


8. Europe -10% Correction into U.S. Election


9. Which Countries Hit Hardest by Tariffs?

From Zach Goldberg Jefferies …DB ranked the countries that are likely to be hardest hit by potential US tariffs, based on their economic reliance on US trade and potential scope of new levies. The top three hardest hit: Mexico, Vietnam and Canada.


10. Steve Jobs 6 Rules of Presentation

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 November 13, 2024

1. Unprecedented Flows Risk On ETFs

Binance

https://www.binance.com/en/square/fear-and-greed-index


2. Dogecoin More Valuable than Ford Motors

STAT: Prime number: Dogecoin is more valuable than Ford  
Morningbrew Blog

A digital token inspired by a Shiba Inu dog meme is now worth more than the company that pioneered the assembly line. Yesterday, dogecoin continued its post-election surge to become more valuable than 121-year-old Ford. As of last night, dogecoin had a market cap of $55.5 billion, compared to Ford’s $44 billion.

While all cryptocurrencies have popped since Election Day, Elon Musk’s preferred token, dogecoin, stands out with a ~157% gain. But at a price of around 40 cents, it remains far below its record high of 72 cents from 2021, per Business Insider.—NF

https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


3. Small Cap 20 Point Spike to New Highs Post Election


4. S&P Earnings Still Outperforming Expectations

From Dave Lutz Jones Trading

“S&P 500 3Q profits grew 8% year/year, better than the expected 3% growth” – Goldman


5. CAPE Ratio Above 38 for the Third Time in History

Definition: Cape Ratio https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cape-ratio.asp  
This is not a market timing indicator.


CAPE ratio. “The S&P 500’s CAPE Ratio has crossed above 38 for the 3rd time in history and is now higher than 98% of historical valuations.”


6. Global Investors See U.S. Stocks as #1

The Daily Shot Brief Equities: Global investors remain enthusiastic about US equities.

Source: BofA Global Research


7. Clean Energy ETF Clean Break to New Lows


8. China Record Trade Surplus

China’s trade surplus is hitting record highs, with customs data from the world’s second-largest economy showing that its export-heavy economy is more export-heavy than ever before.
The difference between the value of goods imported and exported in China surged to $785 billion in the first 10 months this year, the highest on record for that period and an increase of almost 16% from 2023, per Bloomberg. That is an imbalance that won’t have gone unnoticed by the newly elected Trump administration, which has previously discussed slapping tariffs of 60% or more on shipments from China during the campaign — indeed, Google searches for the word “tariff” have soared in the last week (chart here).
The case of China’s ballooning trade surplus is partly a short term story of how manufacturers ramped up shipments ahead of the busy season, and some potentially anticipating tariffs in the event of a Trump victory, as exports soared in October ahead of economists’ expectations. 
But this is really just a continuation of a bigger trend, as China has been increasingly relying on exports to compensate for the weakness of its domestic demand, with imports down 2.3% last month. The slowing economy, weak consumer spending, and China’s middle class becoming increasingly satisfied with domestic alternatives all seem to have contributed towards declining import demand. Brad Setser, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, summarized in a post on X: “[The] overall story is of an economy that is again growing off exports”.
If — or perhaps more accurately given the rhetoric, when — Trump’s administration do announce more details on planned tariffs, analysts expect Beijing to respond with more stimulus and a sharp depreciation of the renminbi; China’s central bank set its official exchange rate against the dollar at the lowest level in a year on Thursday.

Read this on the web instead


9. Podcasts and Tik Tok Dominate News

WSJ By Isabella Simonetti and Anne Steele

https://www.wsj.com/business/media/new-media-social-media-presidential-election-591b0644


10. I tried to hit my daily protein target while avoiding ultra-processed foods like protein powder and bars. I learned 4 lessons. Business Insider

Rachel Hosie tried to hit her protein target while avoiding ultra-processed foods. Boris SV/Getty, mastersky/Getty, Tyler Le/BI

  • I try to eat up to 130 grams of protein a day, and products like protein powder and bars can help.
  • Such foods are often ultra-processed and therefore linked to health risks, so I quit them for a week.
  • I didn’t like how the experiment made me fixate on the ingredients in food.

As a fitness and nutrition reporter, I’m slightly ashamed to say I’ve never paid close attention to how many ultra-processed foods I eat. I take a relatively relaxed approach to my diet and have always felt comfortable with the knowledge that whole foods make up most of it.
I mostly focus on eating enough protein and fiber: I don’t track my food intake and haven’t done for years, but I know roughly how to get enough of each in my diet.
Protein is important for overall health but is particularly helpful for active people, such as myself, as it helps muscles repair and rebuild after workouts.
I try to eat around 110 to 130 grams of protein per day, and most days I consume one high-protein UPF like protein powder, fruity high-protein yogurt, or a protein bar, which have all exploded in popularity in recent years.
According to Precedence Research, the global protein market was worth $10.37 billion in 2022 and is forecast to grow to $23.34 billion by 2032.
With more studies pointing to the potential health risks of UPFs, I started to wonder if I could hit my protein target while avoiding them and keeping my calories in check (not just stuffing my face with vast quantities of peanut butter).
For example, UK-based nutritionist Rob Hobson previously told Business Insider that he used to eat protein bars every day but cut down once he learned about the link between UPFs and a host of health issues plus weight gain.
I tried cutting out high-protein UPFs for a week. There’s no set definition for a UPF, but it’s widely considered to mean any food or drink containing an ingredient you wouldn’t have in your own kitchen, such as emulsifiers. So that’s how I chose what to avoid.
It was doable but required a lot of effort, and my diet also became more boring.
Here are four lessons I learned.
I had to pay close attention to ingredient lists
The night before I started my experiment, I made some overnight oats for the following morning — without my usual scoop of protein powder. Instead, Greek yogurt and chia provided protein, and honey gave flavor and sweetness.
It wasn’t until I was lying in bed that night that I realized I’d unthinkingly used almond milk — a UPF — as I would normally.
Not a great start.
 
Overnight oats, and a grilled cheese sandwich with soup. Rachel Hosie/Business Insider
Come lunchtime, and having not had time to go to the grocery store, I assessed the bread options in the freezer. One loaf was UPF, one, fortunately, wasn’t. While I was already aware of “sourfaux” — fake sourdough bread — I decided to pay more attention to which bread I buy.
I was also pleased to find that the store-bought soup in my fridge was not a UPF either. So my go-to winter lunch of soup with a grilled cheese sandwich on sourdough bread was safe.
When I went to the store, however, I realized not all soups are created equal, and sadly some of my favorites were UPFs.
I didn’t like feeling that foods were off-limits
It was hard to think of high-protein snacks to eat aside from more Greek yogurt. Some days I had an apple with peanut butter, but that got boring after a while and isn’t as high in protein as some people think.
Satisfying my sweet tooth wasn’t particularly easy either — I don’t always want high-protein snacks, sometimes I just want a sweet treat. Nothing in my food cupboard was UPF-free, and I realized I’d have to bake from scratch, so blueberry muffins it was.
As I gazed longingly at the chocolate in my cupboard, I started to feel uneasy. Having food “off-limits” felt all too familiar. It reminded me of being in the throes of diet culture 10 or so years ago, back when I thought certain foods were “bad” (which, of course, made me want them even more).
As someone who’s come a long way and put a lot of work into breaking free from this restrictive mindset, I didn’t like the feeling that there were foods I couldn’t eat.
I usually cook dinners from scratch and I realized I could make small tweaks to ensure they were UPF-free. For example, I like making pasta sauces with cream cheese, but I realized that some brands were UPF and others weren’t.
Grocery shopping took longer than usual, but I figured that was inevitable at the start of the experiment and it would become less time-consuming as I learned which foods were UPF-free.
 
Pea pasta with chicken, chickpeas, butternut squash, leeks, and pine nuts; and a blueberry muffin. Rachel Hosie/Business Insider
As a meat-eater, I find it easy to eat enough protein at dinner, and I regularly make dishes combining both meat and pulses — like a chili con carne with black beans — for the varied nutrients they provide.
However, I was conscious of needing my dinner to do even more heavy lifting to hit my protein goal while avoiding UPFs. So I opted for pea pasta rather than the usual wholewheat, which contained 15 grams more protein per 100 grams. I preferred the texture and taste of regular pasta.
My diet was more boring
As the week wore on, I got bored of eating the same meals. The cinnamon and raisin bagels in the freezer and the cereal in my cupboard teased me as I ate the same two breakfasts on repeat (overnight oats with cow’s milk and sourdough toast with a side of Greek yogurt).
I’m sure I could have been more experimental, but avoiding UPFs was taking enough planning without having to find new recipes to try.
I managed to hit my protein target of 110 to 130 grams of protein each day, but my diet felt a bit less exciting.
Come the weekend, when my fiancé wanted to order a pizza, I decided that life was too short to miss out, even for a one-off experiment.
Ultimately, while most dietitians advise people to take a food-first approach to hitting their various health targets, they aren’t saying people need to eliminate UPFs, but most of us could benefit from cutting down. This experiment has made me more conscious of where I could make small tweaks that aren’t too much effort.
But I’m not going to stress too much about having a scoop of protein powder here or there. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/eating-high-protein-avoid-ultra-processed-foods-upf-lessons-2024-11