1. Q4 Best Historical Returns But October Highest Volatility Month
Bloomberg
2. Average First Day IPO Returns in 87th Percentile 2025
3. Cathie Wood ARKK +50% 2025 …Still Way Below 2021 Highs
Google Finance
4. One Bearish Stat…Insiders Selling
Corporate insiders. “Corporate insider activity signals a bearish tone, with the Insider Transactions Ratio reflecting both caution and profit-taking behaviors.”
Daily Chartbook
5. Bitcoin Entering Historically Bullish Months
Nasdaq Dorsey Wright–Furthermore, October ushers in the strongest seasonal period for Bitcoin. From the end of September to the end of May, Bitcoin averages a gain of 133.7% over those eight months. Meanwhile, it averages a 5.6% gain from June to September, meaning that almost all of Bitcoin’s gains have historically come outside the summer months. Similarly, the NDW index of the ten largest cryptocurrencies by market cap (DWACRYPTO) has averaged a 13.3% gain during the weak period and a 166.8% gain during its strong period. Despite early-year weakness, Bitcoin’s performance has closely mirrored its historical average, remaining relatively flat from late May to now. On the other hand, DWACRYPTO rose 26% during the weak period, highlighting the relative strength of altcoins during a typically sluggish stretch.
Seasonality alone doesn’t drive markets, but it can offer useful context, especially when supported by broader market trends and technical indicators. While crypto momentum has cooled off from summer highs, seasonal trends and expanding breadth offer reasons for optimism. For those with the right risk tolerance, an improvement within cryptocurrencies could offer more than just pumpkin spice and playoff races this Fall.
Nasdaq
6. Total2 is Measure of Total Crypto Market Cap Ex-Bitcoin….+65% in One Year
Total2–Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC, $
TradingView
7. Vanguard Softens Its Stance: Crypto ETF Access May Be Coming—From The Crypto Advisor Substack
The Crypto Advisor
As alluded to in the main segment, the institutional tide in crypto continues to turn – this time with Vanguard.
The world’s second-largest asset manager, with $10.4 trillion in AUM, is preparing to allow access to crypto ETFs on its brokerage platform, Crypto in America has learned. This change in tune is notable coming from one of the most conservative firms – and one that not long ago said, “We also have no plans to offer Vanguard Bitcoin ETFs or other crypto-related products—our perspective is long-standing that cryptocurrencies’ high volatility runs counter to our goal of helping investors generate positive real returns over the long term.”
The significance is hard to miss. One of the industry’s most prominent crypto holdouts may now be preparing to open the door. With regulators fast-tracking ETF approvals and Vanguard’s new CEO, Salim Ramji, bringing direct experience from BlackRock’s blockbuster IBIT launch, the competitive pressure to offer access is mounting. If Vanguard moves forward, it could mark another milestone in bringing crypto into the mainstream toolkit of American investors.
https://thecryptoadvisor.substack.com
8. Private Equity Transactions Still Trending Down
Bloomberg
9. Federal Workers Long-Term Trend
Reuters
10. Chinese-made ‘bone glue’ fixes fractures in just 3 minutes with one injection: report
By Shane Galvin
Scientists in China have developed a revolutionary new “bone glue” that can heal fractures, which could traditionally take months to heal, in a matter of minutes, according to a report.
Product “Bone-02’ was developed by a Chinese research team, which sought to fix orthopedic injuries that would generally require months of downtime and invasive surgeries that often include metal plate insertions, the Global Times reported.
Lin Xianfeng, associate chief orthopedic surgeon at Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, in Hangzhou, said the adhesive can achieve precise fixation in a matter of minutes even in blood-rich environments.
An X-ray of a broken arm that could be treated by the Chinese invented “bone glue” in just minutes.Nattapol_Sritongcom – stock.adobe.com
The glue treatment comes in the form of a single injection and will “bond shattered bone fragments in just three minutes,” according to that report.
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In one trial case, a patient with a wrist fracture received one injection via a mere 3 cm incision and was healed in just three minutes, Cho Sun Daily reported.