1. Interesting Comments on U.S. Dollar from Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank
In a big rebound for US risk assets of late, the USD bounce has been less impressive. In a short note overnight, FX strategist Tim Baker looks at whether DB’s medium term bearish forecasts on the Dollar that were published three weeks ago here remain intact. The short answer is yes.
The recent policy and market volatility have likely been sufficiently concerning to prompt enough of a re-think on investing in the US, especially relative to the very long consensus position at the start of 2025. This coincides with the backdrop of extremes in valuations and positioning (plus there’s the fiscal story in places like Germany and China).
On the most simple metric, the USD has been more than 20% expensive vs PPP for three years – an unprecedented run as we show in the CoTD. Coupled with very high equity valuations relative to its peers and a few other factors mentioned in Tim’s note we continue to think the start of a slow downtrend is in.
Deutsch Bank
2. U.S. Dollar Rally Fails at 50-Day…50-Day Still Below 200-Day
StockCharts
3. MAG 7 ETF +33% from Lows
StockCharts
4. Update: Mag 7 vs. 493 Stocks
Jones Trading
5. ChatGPT 780m Visits in April vs. Next Closest 34m
StockCharts
6. More Stats on Record Stock Buybacks
The Kobeissi Letter
7. One Month Ago “Extreme Fear”
CNN
8. Mortgage Rates Normal vs. Inflation
Nick Gerli
9. Total Mortgage Originations for Second Homes -66% from 2021 Record Level
Charlie Billelo
10. Warren Buffett 10 Word Answer: When Did You Know You Were Rich?
Via Inc: Here’s what Buffett said in 2005 when asked, “When did you know you were rich?”
I bet we all in this room live about the same. We eat about the same and sleep about the same. We pretty much drive a car for 10 years. All this stuff doesn’t make it any different.
I will watch the Super Bowl on a big screen television just like you. We are living the same life.
I have two luxuries: I get to do what I want to do every day and I get to travel a lot faster than you. I travel distances better than you do. The plane is nicer. But that is about the only thing that I do a whole lot different.
You’re rich if you are working around people you like.
I really knew I was rich when I had $10,000. I knew a long time ago that I was going to be doing something I loved doing with people that I loved doing it with.