TOPLEY’S TOP 10 July 16, 2025

1. Small Caps About to Set Not So Good Record.

https://x.com/JC_ParetsX/status/1945245653061312768


2. Retail is Buying Individual Stocks at Highest Level Since 2018

https://x.com/HayekAndKeynes


3. Retail Buying and Institutions Selling.

BofA noted, The cumulative gap between institutional selling and retail buying in the YTD is the largest of any comparable YTD period in our data history since ‘08 and the 2nd largest (after 2017) when normalized by market cap

Zach Goldberg Jefferies


4. Margins Expanding Again

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/the-compound-and-friends-reasons-to-remain-overweight-4903


5. Inheritance as a % of National Output.

For these lucky people, the experience of the Vanderbilts and their contemporaries offers a cautionary tale. At the turn of the 20th century, America’s census recorded about 4,000 millionaires, note Victor Haghani and James White, two wealth managers, in their book, The Missing Billionaires. Suppose a quarter of them had at least $5m (the richest had hundreds) and had invested it in America’s stockmarket. Had they then procreated at the average rate, paid their taxes and spent 2% of their capital each year, their descendants today would include nearly 16,000 old-money billionaires. In reality, it is a struggle to find a single one who traces their fortune back to the first Gilded Age.

https://elmwealth.com/how-to-invest-your-inheritance/


6. ETHE Flows Largest Since ETF Launch.

ETH ETF flows. “US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded their largest weekly net inflows since launch – 225,857 ETH – extending a multi-week trend of growing institutional demand.”

@glassnode


7. Venture Capital Summary.

https://www.google.com/search?q=pitchbook+number+of+funds+not+making+investment+in+one+year+up+50%25&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCTEzMjUyajBqN6gCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&udm=50&fbs=AIIjpHxU7SXXniUZfeShr2fp4giZrjP_Cx0LI1Ytb_FGcOviEiaSXTsdMUiuBeEuSNqG6MGxAgmTPrUk32Qw7HMCrZRR7g-RRFFbn0y_7nZVO61ZFxzc_5MXkaRlPgxU0-Wniyt7RV4l2QeyYrFlqP7M4tSV6JXySg7QxEFS07hCETjiEyKPi0Z5PzJFVvKo7GfDI4n1OMg2IatPZ6sjfEegRQ3pzezuEQ&ved=2ahUKEwiMlpLQ8b-OAxVWFVkFHeOnBGQQ0NsOegQIAxAA&aep=10&ntc=1


8. Over 50% of American are in Top 10% of Earners at Some Point in Life.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ben-carlson-cfa-97661244


9. Condo Prices Dropping.

@Charlie Bilello

Condo prices just posted their 2nd‑biggest YoY drop on record: –2.2% in May.

Why the slump?

80% more condo sellers than buyers

Surging HOA fees, insurance costs & special assessments

Financing hurdles


10. On Track for Lowest Murder Rate in History.

The US is on course for the lowest murder rate in its history this year. After years of decline, crime spiked in 2020 and 2021, with murders reaching their highest since the mid-1990s. But they have since dropped precipitously, and continue to do so: The Real-Time Crime Index recorded 2,095 homicides in January to April, the most recent data available, down 20% from the same period last year. The data analyst Jeff Asher wrote in May that the figures were set to be lower than 2014’s murder rate record of 4.45 per 100,000, and that increased investment in local communities was likely a factor. Violent and property crime are both also close to record low levels, Asher wrote.

www.semafor.com