TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 28 2024

1. Nasdaq 100 Short Interest Chart

Shorts are dead


2. Largest Weekly Inflow Ever to Tech Funds


3. July Seasonality for Nasdaq

Dave Lutz Jones Trading 
Nearly a quarter of all 1-month peaks in the Nasdaq 100 happened in July.  That’s twice as many as any other month.  Quite a few factors lining up for a short- to medium-term peak soon.


4. Top 10 Companies in U.S. Equals GDP of China


5. Home Construction ETF Flat for the Year

ITB -15% from highs…flat in 2024


6. Micron -15% from Highs

MU pulling back to 50-day moving average.


7. Gold was Rising with S&P Until May 2024

Gold vs. S&P rolled over in May/June


8. Waymo Full-Time in San Fran-Morningbrew

AUTO
Waymo’s California dream come true

People who are afraid of talkative Uber drivers, rejoice: Driverless taxi rides are one step closer to ubiquity. Waymo One, the ride-hailing service that employs self-driving white Jaguars, is now available to everyone in San Francisco.
San Francisco is the second city to go full Waymo, four years after the company opened operations to the general public in Phoenix, Arizona. Not to be confused with John Mulaney’s soda-delivering robot friend, Saymo, Waymo was started 15 years ago as a project within Google’s parent, Alphabet. Multiple tests and destroyed cars later, it stands out as a pioneer in the nascent robotaxi space.
And it could be coming to a city near you. Waymo currently offers limited service in Los Angeles and plans to start operating in the San Francisco of Texas—Austin—later this year.
Everyone’s cool with this?
Waymo’s success makes it almost easy to forget that it’s had plenty of hiccups:

  • As recently as last month, a probe by the US Highway Traffic Safety Administration discovered safety incidents relating to Waymo’s cars.
  • Waymo recalled software in all its cars earlier this month after one crashed into a telephone pole.
  • In February, a San Francisco crowd set a Waymo car on fire.

And yet, Waymo is still cruising. The company said 300,000 people were on its San Francisco waitlist before it opened to the public. Waymo claims that its cars have driven riders over 3.8 million miles across SF as of April.
Its next goal…make money. As the company vies for a piece of the market dominated by Uber and Lyft, it hopes to find a way to be profitable and make back some of the billions that Google has spent to develop it.
Zoom out: Waymo is the future of the US robotaxi industry. Its closest competitor, GM’s autonomous vehicle unit Cruise, had its licenses in California suspended in October after a series of collisions.—CC

9. Value of U.S. Homes by State


10. Wealth Building

By Morgan Housel @morganhousel
Here’s how the U.S. economy performed over the last 170 years:

But do you know what happened during this period? Where do we begin …
1.3 million Americans died while fighting nine major wars.
Roughly 99.9% of all companies that were created went out of business.
Four U.S. presidents were assassinated.

  • 675,000 Americans died in a single year from a flu pandemic.
  • 30 separate natural disasters killed at least 400 Americans each.
  • 33 recessions lasted a cumulative 48 years.
  • The number of forecasters who predicted any of those recessions rounds to zero.
  • The stock market fell more than 10% from a recent high at least 102 times.
  • Stocks lost a third of their value at least 12 times.
  • Annual inflation exceeded 7% in 20 separate years.
  • The words “economic pessimism” appeared in newspapers at least 29,000 times, according to Google.

Our standard of living increased 20-fold in these 170 years, but barely a day went by that lacked tangible reasons for pessimism.
Getting Wealthy vs. Staying Wealthy · Collab Fund

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 27 2024

1. Valuation of Largest Stocks vs. DotCom


2. Hedge Funds Holding Top 20 Largest Names in S&P

The Most Popular Stocks in Hedge Fund Portfolios  Visual Capitalist By Niccolo Conte

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-most-popular-stocks-in-hedge-fund-portfolios/


3. FedEx +15% Day…Breaks to New Highs

Fedex trades like tech stock yesterday.


4. Market Projections for Interest Rates

End of 2025 4% Fed Funds-Dorsey Wright

https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-dorsey-wright-investment-research-technical-analysis-platform


5-6. The Problem with Europe

From Irrelevant Investor Blog


7. Materials Sector ETF (VAW) Relative to S&P at Covid Lows

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VAW/holdings/


8. Follow-Up to Yesterday’s Streamer War Charts….Less Original Shows


9. TSA Checkpoints New All-Time Highs in Travel


10. Primal Blueprint Living Laws

The 10 Primal Blueprint Laws: Your Ultimate Guide to Healthy Living

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 26 2024

1. Tech Still Powering Rally


2. Streak Without 2% Correction

Jefferies Zach Goldberg
335 and Counting…Bespoke noted, while the current streak is only about a third as long as the longest on record, if we get to July 17th without a one-day drop of 2%+, this will be the longest streak without a 2%+ drop since 2007.


3. Semiconductor Seasonality—NVDA 20% of Index


4. Streaming Wars-PARA Lost $1.6B on Streaming Last Year


5. Comcast Lost $2.7B on Streaming Last Year


6. NFLX Vs. CMCSA Chart


7. “Everyone Else” Catching Tesla

By Tom Randall Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-26/tesla-poised-to-lose-its-six-year-ev-market-majority-in-the-us?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=GGda9y2L


8. Home Prices 47% Higher than Early 2020

CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/25/housing-affordability-price-mortgage-rates.html

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS


9. McDonalds Margins vs. WEN/BK

Barrons


10. Google Studied Gen Z

Business Insider Adam Rogers

What they heard surprised them. Young folks basically say they see no difference between going online for news versus for social interaction. Gen Zers approach most of their digital experience in what the researchers call “timepass” mode, just looking to not be bored. If they want to answer a question or learn something new, they might turn to a search engine, but they’re acquiring new information mainly via their social feeds, which are algorithmically pruned to reflect what they care about and who they trust. In short, they’ve created their own filters to process an onslaught of digitized information. Only the important stuff shows up, and if something shows up, it must be important.

Gen Zers told researchers they spend most of their digital lives in “timepass” mode — engaging in light, obligation-free content. Jigsaw and Gemic

They don’t read long articles. And they don’t trust anything with ads, or paywalls, or pop-ups asking for donations or subscriptions. “If you’re making clickbait, you have zero faith in your content,” one subject told the researchers. “And news sources — even CNN and The New York Times — do clickbait. I throw those articles away immediately.”

For Gen Z, the online world resembles the stratified, cliquish lunchroom of a 1980s teen movie. Instead of listening to stuffy old teachers, like CNN and the Times, they take their cues from online influencers — the queen bees and quarterback bros at the top of the social hierarchy. The influencers’ personal experience makes them authentic, and they speak Gen Z’s language.

“Gen Zers will have a favorite influencer or set of influencers who they essentially outsource their trust to, and then they’re incredibly loyal to everything that influencer is saying,” says Beth Goldberg, Jigsaw’s head of research. “It becomes extremely costly to fall out of that influencer’s group, because they’re getting all their information from them.”

https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-most-trusted-news-source-online-comment-sections-google-2024-6

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 25 2024

1-2. Start with a Couple Chats from Callum Thomas

No shock…global stocks and small value hit new lows in valuation vs. large growth

Defensive Sectors-Staples, Healthcare, Utilities New Lows in ETF market share

https://www.topdowncharts.com


3. Nvidia Daily Volume Dwarfs Mag 7

Rosenberg Research
Nvidia, a $126 stock, saw trading volume of around 520 million shares on Thursday and more than 600 million on Friday. The norm so far this year has been over 400 million shares traded daily (split-adjusted), which is beyond the pale. Most of the rest of the Magnificent 7 have seen daily trading volume of between 20 million and 70 million shares, a fraction of Nvidia’s activity. Back in the early 1980s, just before I started in this business, a big day for the overall market was 20 million shares. This is not only surreal, but also it is difficult to understand in terms of the implications of this extraordinary situation when the world’s largest company sees its shares trade hands a half-billion times in one day. Why it’s concerning is that it highlights the extent to which dramatic liquidity inflows are underpinning these mega-cap stocks.
https://www.rosenbergresearch.com


4. Market Leading Semiconductor Sub-Sector -7.2% Since From Highs


5. Bitcoin Technicals Update from Bespoke Investments

Bespoke Investment Group
-Like many stocks, Bitcoin has also found itself treading water for the last several months trying to hang on to the gains from the late 2023/early 2024 rally. This morning, prices are down another 4% near the $60,000 level. After peaking above $70,000 in March, prices have been drifting lower in a sideways range, and if the April lows in the $57,000 range don’t hold, it could be a long summer.

From a longer-term perspective, $65,000 seems to be a level that Bitcoin just can’t shake. In early 2021, it briefly flirted with that level and then quickly erased more than half of its value. Later that year, it got there again and managed to stay there for a few days before crashing over 75%. It took two years and a few months to get back there again, and this time Bitcoin managed to hang around $65,000 again and even take out $70,000, but that level has failed to hold again.

https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/bespokes-morning-lineup-6-24-24-bitcoin-tries-to-hold-the-sixties


6. Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy weight-loss drug approved in China

Reuters-By Andrew Silver 
The number of overweight adults in China, the world’s second most populous country, is projected to reach 540 million by 2030, 2.8 times higher than 2000 levels, a Chinese public health study showed in 2020. Numbers who are obese are seen jumping 7.5 times to 150 million.  But Novo may have a much shorter time in the Chinese market to make the most of its early-mover advantage in weight-loss drugs.
Its patent on semaglutide, the key ingredient in Wegovy and its diabetes drug Ozempic, is set to expire in less than two years in China compared to in 2031 in Europe and Japan and in 2032 in the U.S, and local drugmakers are racing to develop generic or biosimilar versions.
Novo is also in the midst of a legal fight in China over the patent, an adverse ruling in which could make it lose its semaglutide exclusivity even sooner. That would make China the first major market where it is stripped of patent protection for the drugs.  At least two Chinese firms, Livzon Pharmaceutical Group (000513.SZ), opens new tab and Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering, have already applied to begin commercial sales of Ozempic copies.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/novo-nordisk-says-semaglutide-approved-long-term-weight-management-china-2024-06-25/


7. Fixed Income Yields Above U.S. Inflation

Advisors Perspective Blog

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content_image/data/74/74c2cda3a8e554064e51f51b42246d4f.png


8. UBS Selling Midtown Office Via Online Auction


9. Rolex Prices -40%


10. High Stress Resiliency Linked To Specific Types Of Gut Microbes And Metabolites: Study

ZEROHEDGE BY TYLER DURDEN
Authored by Amy Denney via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A new study came out on Friday in Nature Mental Health reveals new evidence that the gut and brain work together to build resilience to stress, contributing to a growing body of research that suggests the gut is a possible pathway to help prevent or minimize stress-related psychiatric conditions.
Specifically, a high-resilience phenotype of the gut microbiome was identified based on a mix of microbes and metabolites that had anti-inflammatory and gut-barrier integrity features. This phenotype was associated with lower levels of anxiety and depression.
Besides looking at the traits of the microbiome, the study used clinical and psychological assessment tools and MRIs that examined structural and functional roles of the brain. The study included 116 healthy participants, 18 to 60 years old.
The main finding suggests that “the microbiome is critical in shaping resilience” and modifying the gut microbiome “can optimize mental health.”

Resiliency Equates to Health

The differences in microbes and metabolites between high-resilience and low-resilience individuals were distinct in the study. High resiliency was associated with biomarkers indicating better gut barrier integrity, lower depression and anxiety psychopathology, higher cognitive function, less gray matter volume in the brain, and increased functional circuitry in the brain.
Compromised or weakened gut barrier, sometimes called “leaky gut,” is being considered as a potential factor in a number of chronic diseases. Dysbiosis, or an imbalance of gut microbes, is associated with chronic diseases and inflammation.
Analysis of the gut microbiome in the high-resilience individuals noted increased levels of microbes and metabolites that are:

  • Better at environmental adaptation
  • Able to replicate and repair DNA
  • Better at carbohydrate and energy metabolism
  • Anti-inflammatory

Ms. Church said in terms of psychosocial traits, the high-resilient individuals were also more non-judgmental, easy-going, kind, extroverted, and mindful. They had lower levels of perceived stress and also low levels of neuroticism.
She described the relationship between the gut and brain like a car with working brakes.
“If you have great working brakes, you’re able to modulate or control the situation, have emotional regulation and cognitive response,” she said. “And they had gut bacteria and metabolites associated with reduced inflammation and better gut barrier integrity.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/high-stress-resiliency-linked-specific-types-gut-microbes-and-metabolites-study

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 June 24 2024

1. NVDA $2T to $3T in 30 Day vs. Warren Buffett

Jim Reid Deutsche Bank


2. Short-Interest in S&P and QQQ Hits New Lows

JP Morgan

Found at Daily Dirt Nap Newsletter https://www.dailydirtnap.com/


3. Ned Davis Research- U.S. Households at Record Stock Allocation


4. Long-Term Trends in S&P

From Ben Carlson Blog

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/06/when-is-the-mean-reversion-coming-in-the-stock-market


5. The Defense Industry Can’t Hire Workers Fast Enough -Axios

By Hope King and Colin Demarest


6. Tom Lee Fundstrat -Autos and Housing Effect on CPI

https://fundstrat.com


7. Home Prices to Median Income Increases by 50% vs. 1990

Chartr
-As wage growth struggles to keep pace with home price inflation, buying a house has felt increasingly out of reach for millions of Americans recently — a trend that’s been ongoing for the last 3+ decades.
Indeed, in 2023, a typical home in America will cost buyers 4.9x the median income. That’s a 50%+ increase on the 3.1x price-to-income ratio averaged in 1990 and only slightly below the record figure set in 2022, according to new analysis from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Furthermore, this is a phenomenon that’s happening almost everywhere: a whopping 378 out of the 384 American Metropolitan areas (98.4%) that Chartr analyzed from the Harvard report saw rises between 1990 and 2023. Just 2 areas reported a home-price-to-median-income ratio that was the same as in 1990 and only 4 reported a drop.

Inflation continues to be the factor in how Americans perceive the economy — and the cost of houses is a major factor in that sentiment. Across the US, home prices have surged by 47% since the start of 2020 and have more than doubled since 2010, based on data from the NAR cited in the report.
While new-home construction has fallen to a 4-year low, there’s also fewer existing homes entering the market. Rising interest rates have created a “golden handcuff” effect, discouraging homeowners from selling and taking on new, more expensive mortgages. Additionally, more homes are owned by older generations who are less likely to move. This has all culminated in a stark reality: you now need an annual income of $100,000 to afford a median-priced home in nearly half of all metro areas.
As for renters? The majority of them are already declaring the American Dream of homeownership dead.

www.chartr.com


8. Median Price Single Home $424,500 -Wolf Street Blog


9. The Average Heat Waves in U.S.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/heat-wave-economy-damage-d63ce343?mod=past_editions


10. Farnam Street Blog-Roger Federer

Insights-“Perfection is impossible. In the 1526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those matches. Now, I have a question for you.
What percentage of points do you think I won in those matches? Only 54%.
In other words, even top-ranked tennis players win barely more than half of the points they play. When you lose every second point on average, you learn not to dwell on every shot.
You teach yourself to think, okay, I double-faulted … it’s only a point. Okay, I came to the net, then I got passed again; it’s only a point. Even a great shot, an overhead backhand smash that ends up on ESPN’s top 10 playlist. That, too, is just a point.
And here’s why I’m telling you this. When you’re playing a point, it has to be the most important thing in the world, and it is. But when it’s behind you, It’s behind you. This mindset is really crucial because it frees you to fully commit to the next point and the next point after that, with intensity, clarity, and focus.
You want to become a master at overcoming hard moments. That is, to me, the sign of a champion. The best in the world are not the best because they win every point. It’s because they lose again and again and have learned how to deal with it. You accept it. Cry it out if you need to and force a smile.”
— Roger Federer
https://fs.blog/