TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 13 2024

1. VIX Stock Volatility Index Had Largest Peak to Close Move Ever Monday Last Week

@Charlie Bilello
After hitting a high of 65.73 on Monday morning, the $VIX would end the day at 38.57. That 41% decline was the largest peak to close move ever.


2. Russell 2000 Small Caps -8.5% in August


3. Hedge Funds Turn Bearish on Commodities…Contra Indicator?

Found at Daily Dirt Nap Newsletter

https://www.dailydirtnap.com


4. Follow-Up to Yesterday’s REIT Chart

All-Star Charts

https://get.allstarcharts.com


5. Semiconductor Index -27% Sell Off Bounces at 200-Day


6. DJT Trump Media…$70 in March….$25 Last

DJT 50day about to go thru 200day to downside.


7. Foreign Investors Pull Record Amount of Money From China

Story by Bloomberg News

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-AA1oD8vy


8. Top 11 Holders of Bitcoin in World


9. YouTube Ad Empire


10. Creatine for Brain Energy?

Psychology Today
-Potential benefits for fatigue, foggy thinking, sleep loss, and even dementia Austin Perlmutter M.D.
 
Key points

  • Creatine aids brain energy by boosting ATP regeneration, possibly improving cognitive performance.
  • Studies suggest creatine may help with fatigue, brain fog, and sleep deprivation in stressful conditions.
  • Early research shows creatine might benefit Alzheimer’s and cognitive decline, though more studies are needed.

To think, act and feel your best, your brain needs constant access to high quality energy. Is it possible that creatine can help our brains regenerate energy, and can this combat foggy thinking, fatigue, poor cognitive performance, dementia, and sleep deficits? In this post, we’re breaking down the powerful new science showing how creatine can influence brain energetics. We’ll talk about mechanisms and the latest clinical research. Note: this is purely for educational purposes, and you should talk to your healthcare provider before taking any supplement.

Let’s Start With a Quick Background on Brain Energetics
The brain, despite its relatively small size, consumes about 20% of the body’s total energy, primarily in the form of glucose, which our brain imports through the blood-brain barrier from our bloodstream. Glucose is metabolized through glycolysis and the citric acid cycle, generating ATP (adenosine triphosphate), which powers our neurons. Additionally, the brain can use ketone bodies as an alternative energy source, particularly during periods of low glucose availability, such as fasting. Dysregulation of brain metabolism is implicated in various neurological conditions, especially Alzheimer’s disease, where impaired glucose metabolism and mitochondrial dysfunction play significant roles. We’ll come back to this.

What Is Creatine and Where Does it Come From?
Before we get into the technical aspects of creatine, let’s start with the basics of what creatine is. Creatine is a compound made naturally in our bodies out of the amino acids arginine, glycine, and methionine. This synthesis primarily occurs in the liver and in the brain. Creatine also can be found in certain foods, in particular animal foods. It’s notable that for this reason, when compared to omnivores, vegans consume substantially less dietary creatine, and vegetarians may have lower levels of circulating and muscle creatine than omnivores. Over 90% of our creatine stores are located in our skeletal muscle.

Creatine Supplementation
Ok, now let’s shift to talk about taking creatine supplementation. There are over 1000 peer-reviewed papers on this topic. There are several different forms of creatine, but the majority of the data on efficacy and use comes specifically from creatine monohydrate. Creatine monohydrate is highly popular in athletes, and has been extensively studied and deemed relatively safe at doses up to 30 grams a day for up to five years in healthy people, although there are reports of GI issues, muscle cramps and problems with heat tolerance. Though these topics are still being investigated, a recent review entitled “Common questions and misconceptions about creatine supplementation: What does the scientific evidence really show?” looked at popular misconceptions about creatine, finding that in healthy individuals, there’s not much data that creatine is linked to hair loss, kidney issues, muscle cramping or fewer benefits in women, and that oral creatine monohydrate is likely to be the best form, probably around 3-5 grams a day.

Brain Energetic Mechanisms of Creatine
The core pathway identified that tethers creatine to everything from exercise benefits to brain health is a bidirectional reaction where phosphate groups can be added to creatine to allow for the regeneration of energy currency called adenosine triphosphate, or ATP. Here’s the basics of how it works. Creatine can have a phosphate added to it using an enzyme called creatine kinase. The new molecule, called phosphocreatine, can then be used to regenerate ATP from ADP in places of high energy use, specifically the muscle and brain. Creatine is removed by the body after it degrades into creatinine, a molecule that can be excreted through urine.

How does creatine get into the brain? There are several transporters, including the creatine transporter one or CT1 and a sodium chloride protein that allows for dietary creatine and creatine made in our livers to pass the blood-brain barrier, but the CT1 pathway seems to be more important in regulating uptake.

Some research suggests that CT1 receptors may be decreased in the context of high consumption of supplementary creatine, which could potentially limit the ability of supplemental creatine to reach the brain. As a way to bypass this potential resistance, there’s some data suggesting that the consumption of a creatine precursor called guanidinoacetic acid or an analog of creatine called cyclocreatine may help bypass this potential resistance.

How Creatine May Acutely Boost Brain Energy
Let’s now talk about the potential role of creatine under conditions of acute brain stressors. In the course of our days, our brains can experience a host of different stressors like fatigue, lower oxygen, and sleep deprivation. These stressors are believed to affect and be a reflection of brain energetics. Here, research suggests that creatine may have an especially important role. In one 2015 clinical study, young people who experienced oxygen deprivation had improvements in cognition when given placeboA 2002 study using 8 grams of daily creatine supplementation was found to reduce mental fatigue during math calculations. A small study on sleep-deprived rugby players from 2011 found that creatine supplementation attenuated sleep-related declines in performance, and a new study in Nature Scientific Reports published in 2024 found that creatine supplementation improved cognitive performance and altered brain energetic signals in healthy people after sleep deprivation.

Could Creatine Target States of Chronic Brain Energetic Depletion?
In addition to acute brain stressors that reflect and influence brain energetics, many chronic brain issues are linked to impaired brain energetics. Of these, the best example may be Alzheimer’s disease, a condition that affects almost 60 million people around the world and up to 1 in 3 people over age 85. Alzheimer’s disease is sometimes called “Type 3 diabetes” because it’s been clearly linked to impairments in brain energetics. Specifically, data suggests that a decrease in brain use of glucose (called “cerebral hypometabolism”) is an early indicator of Alzheimer’s disease, and may be a driver of disease progression. Importantly, a decrease in brain glucose utilization has also been found in older adults in general. So how might creatine factor into the conversation?

Generally speaking, the research looking at the potential for creatine as a way to benefit brain energetics in Alzheimer’s or age-related cognitive decline is very early and almost exclusively preclinical. However, some promising findings have many researchers invested in continuing pursuit of this emerging science. In a 2023 paper entitled “Creatine as a Therapeutic Target in Alzheimer’s Disease,” the authors state that despite the existing lack of clinical data, “Creatine may serve as a potential target for prevention and therapy and Creatine monohydrate supplementation may be beneficial in AD,” and advocate for more clinical data. The good news is that there’s at least one protocol for a pilot study on this very topic now published.

Putting it Together
Creatine is a naturally occurring compound that is found in our food and is synthesized in our bodies under normal states. Creatine’s known mechanism of action indicates that it plays a role in energy regeneration, and this may have significant implications for brain energetics. While the research is still early, there’s some initial signal that creatine may help to offset energetic depletion states in our brains both acutely and long term.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-modern-brain/202408/creatine-for-brain-energy

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 12 2024

1. Bonds Negatively Correlated with Stocks Again

From Dave Lutz Jones Trading
As the S&P 500 Index lost about 6% across the first three trading days of August, the Treasury market posted gains of almost 2%. That enabled investors with 60% of their assets in stocks and 40% in bonds — a once time-honored strategy for building a diversified portfolio with less volatility — to outperform one that merely held equities.


2. Fed Fund Futures Pricing in 100 Basis Points in Cuts 2024

https://fundstrat.com/


3. Vanguard REIT Index Now Positive for the Year


4. AI Weight in S&P

MarketEar Blog

https://themarketear.com/newsfeed


5. S&P Earnings Expanding Beyond Mag 7


6. Most Neglected Stocks and Most Crowded Stocks in Each Sector

From Spilled Coffee Blog 

This is the list of the most neglected stock within each sector:

These are the most crowded stock with each sector:

Source: Daily Chartbook


7. Top100 Interval Funds Annualized Growth Rate of 39%


8. More Data Centers in U.S. than Rest of World Combined

Torsten Slok, Ph.D.Chief Economist, PartnerApollo Global Management

There are more than 5000 data centers in the US. In Germany there are 521 and in China 449, see chart below.


9. The U.S. Only Imports Half of What Europe Does

Barrons

https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-companies-tik-tok-huawei-7e9c6444?mod=past_editions


10. David Brooks “Mental Diet”

From Farnam Street Blog  

When people worry about your mental diet, they tend to fret about the junk you’re pouring into your brain—the trashy videos, the cheap horror movies, the degrading reality TV, and … I’m not so worried about the dangers of mental junk food. That’s because I’ve found that many of the true intellectuals I’ve met take pleasure in mental junk food too. Having a taste for trashy rom-coms hasn’t rotted their brain or made them incapable of writing great history or doing deep physics. No, my worry is that, you won’t put enough really excellent stuff into your brain. I’m talking about what you might call the “theory of maximum taste.” This theory is based on the idea that exposure to genius has the power to expand your consciousness. If you spend a lot of time with genius, your mind will end up bigger and broader than if you spend your time only with run-of-the-mill stuff. The theory of maximum taste says that each person’s mind is defined by its upper limit—the best that it habitually consumes and is capable of consuming.”

— David Brooks (lightly edited for clarity)   

https://fs.blog/

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 09 2024

1. Capital Spending by the Big 4

Random Walk, by Moses Sternstein https://www.therandomwalk.co/


2. Capex Not Helping Startups–Struggling AI Startups Look for a Bailout From Big Tech

WSJ
Amazon, Google and Microsoft are using a new type of deal to get employees and technology from artificial-intelligence firms
By Berber JinTom Dotan and Miles Kruppa

Artificial intelligence startups raised billions of dollars last year, aiming to become winners in the latest tech-driven boom. Now many are struggling to survive—and asking Silicon Valley’s biggest companies to bail them out. 

At least three once-hot AI startups have been rescued via a new type of deal that many in the tech industry say are acquisitions in everything but name. These deals have the advantage of skirting the typical regulatory process at a time when big tech’s growing control over generative AI is being scrutinized by governments.

On Friday, Character.AI announced a deal for Google to use its technology and hire many of its researchers and executives, including its co-founders Noam Shazeer and Daniel De Freitas. Google negotiated a licensing fee worth $2 billion for the startup’s technology to help buy out early investors, people familiar with the matter said. 

The two companies considered an outright acquisition, but concluded that was unlikely to get past regulators, according to a person familiar with the matter. 

In June, Adept AI struck a deal in which Amazon agreed to hire most of the startup’s employees and paying about $330 million to license its technology, according to people with knowledge of the arrangement. That was enough, along with Adept’s remaining cash, to pay back investors, but a disappointing turn for a company that just last year was valued at $1 billion.
Microsoft cast the mold for this deal type in March when it hired nearly all the employees from AI developer Inflection to start a new consumer AI division and paid around $650 million to license its technology. 

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/struggling-ai-startups-look-for-a-bailout-from-big-tech-3e635927


3. Bitcoin -15% in 7 Trading Days

Nasdaq Dorsey Wright


4. Stock Leader Monster Beverage -27% from Highs…Back to 2022 Levels


5. Micron Top to Bottom Correction -45%

$156 Top to $85 Low


6. Latin America Chart

An International Market Breaking Down…50d thru 200d to downside.


7. Costco Pulling a Netflix Password Clean-Up

Morningbrew Blog
RETAIL Good luck sneaking in here anymore 
Soon the only way you’re gonna be getting into Costco without a membership is through the vents: Card scanners are coming to all front entrances “over the coming months,” the retailer of everything in bulk announced this week in an escalation of its Netflix-like efforts to end membership-sharing.
The main change: Instead of showing your pass to a Costco employee (the ones TikTokers have made a trend of foiling), you’ll present your physical or digital membership card to a scanner. But robots aren’t taking jobs—there will still be someone at the door guiding the process.
Here’s why your days of borrowing mom’s card to grab a rotisserie chicken are numbered:

  • The grocery warehouse makes most of its money from membership fees (they accounted for $4.6 billion in revenue last fiscal year).
  • It started cracking down on card-sharing over a year ago after noticing more shoppers using memberships that didn’t belong to them, especially at self-checkout. Since then, Costco has tightened up its entrances and started requiring customers to show photo ID if their membership card doesn’t include a picture.

Memberships are also getting a price hike for the first time since 2017. On Sept. 1, the basic Gold Star tier will go from $60 to $65, and the Executive Membership will increase from $120 to $130.ML
https://www.morningbrew.com/daily


8. Retail Gas Prices Coming Down

From Abnormal Returns Blog

www.abnormalreturns.com


9. Long-Term S&P Chart Still Above 50 Week Moving Average


10. Views on America’s global role diverge widely by age and party

ByHannah Hartig

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/02/views-on-americas-global-role-diverge-widely-by-age-and-party

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 08 2024

1. ABNB -35% from Highs

 


2. SMCI Hit $1229 on March 7th 2024…

-60% from highs but stock was at $300 to start year.


3. Ethereum ETF -25% Since Launch

 


4. 94% of Stock Market Years Have a 5% Drawdown

Irrelevant Investor Blog

https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/thoughts-selloff


5. Consumer Debt Issues at Lows

Wolf Street Blog

Household Debt, Delinquencies, Collections, and Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors and their Debts in Q2


6. Add Latin America to the Demographic Slowdown


7. More than 80% of S&P Outsources to India. Will AI Change that?


    8. Olympic Streaming

    https://www.profgalloway.com/


    9. What are the Most Dangerous Jobs in the United States? From Zerohedge

    Some of the most dangerous jobs in the U.S. involve significant physical labor and working in hazardous environments, like loggers, roofers, and fishing and hunting workers.

    Many of these jobs also are usually done in isolated areas, like logging and fishing, where access to emergency medical attention is limited.

     

    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/these-are-most-dangerous-jobs-us The figures come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and are updated as of December 2023.


    10. The 5 Stages of the Creative Process -James Clear Blog

    In 1940, an advertising executive named James Webb Young published a short guide titled, A Technique for Producing Ideas. In this guide, he made a simple, but profound statement about generating creative ideas.

    According to Young, innovative ideas happen when you develop new combinations of old elements. In other words, creative thinking is not about generating something new from a blank slate, but rather about taking what is already present and combining those bits and pieces in a way that has not been done previously.

    Most important, the ability to generate new combinations hinges upon your ability to see the relationships between concepts. If you can form a new link between two old ideas, you have done something creative.
    Young believed this process of creative connection always occurred in five steps.

    1. Gather new material. At first, you learn. During this stage you focus on 1) learning specific material directly related to your task and 2) learning general material by becoming fascinated with a wide range of concepts.
    2. Thoroughly work over the materials in your mind. During this stage, you examine what you have learned by looking at the facts from different angles and experimenting with fitting various ideas together.
    3. Step away from the problem. Next, you put the problem completely out of your mind and go do something else that excites you and energizes you.
    4. Let your idea return to you. At some point, but only after you have stopped thinking about it, your idea will come back to you with a flash of insight and renewed energy.
    5. Shape and develop your idea based on feedback. For any idea to succeed, you must release it out into the world, submit it to criticism, and adapt it as needed.

    For a More Creative Brain Follow These 5 Steps

    TOPLEY’S TOP 10 August 07 2024

    1. VIX Volatility Index Third Largest Rise in History

    VIX had its largest increase in history (to 65.73 from 23.39 on Friday) and reached its 3rd highest (crisis) reading in history. Only the Lehman and Covid Panics had higher (crisis) VIX readings. Several brokerage firms’ systems crashed. From King Report http://thekingreport.com/

     


    2. VIX History

    Dave Lutz Jones Trading
    Since 2000, the VIX has closed above 28.5 just 12% of the time.  But when the VIX has been that high, the S&P 500 has produced an annualized return of greater than 40% (vs an annualized return of less than 1% when the VIX has been below 28.5) – Bloggers note.


    3. 40% of World Population is on META Products Daily

    META sideways pattern…+42% 2024


    4. The AGG Bond Index +7.7% One Year vs. T-Bill 5.4%

    The Aggregate Bond ETF ($AGG) is now up 7.7% in the past year, outperforming Treasury Bills ($BIL +5.4%).

    Bonds non-correlated again…Returns since July 16th highs in stock market.


    5. S&P Best Performing Stocks Since 7/16 High in Market

    What is impressive is that in looking only at the S&P 500’s 20 best performing stocks since the 7/16 high, the two sectors with the largest representation are Health Care and Industrials. However, looking more closely, a number of those Industrial stocks are also in the Aerospace & Defense industry with stocks like Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and RTX (RTX) all posting double digit gains.

    https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/defense-outperforms


    6. Credit Spreads Widen

    Credit: Spreads have widened sharply.

    Source: The Daily Shot


    7. Used Car Prices Falling Month Over Month for Past Year

    Barrons

      https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-survey-reveals-a-used-car-sweet-spot-a-willing-buyer-and-a-decent-stock-30bd53b5?mod=past_editions


      8. Best and Worst Cities for College Graduates -ADP

      The 10 best cities for new graduates, according to ADP:

       

      https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/smart-cities/4798950-these-are-the-best-us-cities-for-recent-college-grads/


      9. Ranking the Most Expensive Neighborhoods in NYC

      NYT By Michael Kolomatsky

       

      https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/realestate/new-york-citys-most-expensive-neighborhoods.html


      10. What Do Pommel Horse Guy and Jeff Bezos Have in Common? The Same Secret to Success

      By Jessica Stillman, Contributor, Inc.com @EntryLevelRebel
       
      Watching the Paris Olympics has been a blast — we’ve had it on basically all day, every day at my house. But following Paris Olympics memes has been almost as much fun. 
      There was the ultra-casual Turkish shooter (versus the badass Korean with action star vibes), the Italian gymnast sponsored by parmesan cheese, and just about everything Snoop Dogg does and says
      But obviously, the number one meme of the Games so far has been Stephen Nedoroscik, a.k.a. Pommel Horse Guy.
      Unless you live under a rock, you don’t need me to tell you the story of the understated pommel horse specialist whose last-minute heroics helped the U.S. men’s gymnastics team take home bronze in the all-around event (and also earned him an individual bronze). I have nothing to add to the internet’s hilarious response to Nedoroscik’s Clark Kent-like performance, except to point out that it has a surprising lot in common with the career of Jeff Bezos

      Pommel Horse Guy and the power of specialization
      You’re probably thinking I have lost my mind. One guy is a mild-mannered electrical engineer who happens to be a world-class gymnast. The other is among the world’s richest men. They’re both kind of buff and nerdy, but beyond that, what’s the similarity?  
      In a sentence, both are spectacular examples of the power of clear-eyed self-assessment followed by strategic specialization. 
      This occurred to me when I was reading through reactions to the Olympics on social media (don’t judge me–I’m far from the only one wasting time this way) and came across a LinkedIn post celebrating Nedoroscik’s triumph from executive coach Stephen Courson. 
      Like everyone else, Courson was impressed by Nedoroscik’s humility and self-possession. But he also highlighted Nedoroscik’s unique career trajectory in gymnastics. 
      “His story is incredible and probably applies to more people on here than a Biles or Dressel story,” Courson insists. “Stephen didn’t progress in gymnastics like he wanted to, so he niched down into the one event he excelled at: the pommel horse. He started winning all sorts of competitions as an event specialist, and literally was put on the team because he scores so big on his ONE THING.” 
      “How many of us need to specialize a bit more to get to the next level of our journey?” he asks. 

      The secret ingredient to success? Brutal self-assessment
      I’m not sure the answer to that question. Generalists have their strengths too. As star psychologist Adam Grant has noted, “We don’t need to debate whether it’s better to be a generalist or a specialist. The world needs both.” 
      But what Courson’s post did underline for me is the importance of being brutally honest with yourself about where your talents lie and making smart choices about how to direct your efforts for maximum payoff based on those observations. 
      That’s something Jeff Bezos famously did early in his life. The Amazon founder has spoken about how when he arrived at Princeton as a young man, he dreamed of being a physicist. “Halfway through, I figured out I wasn’t smart enough to be a physicist,” he admitted. A cold-eyed appraisal of his abilities led him to switch to business. We all know how that turned out. 
      There’s even a mathematical way to express the value of the kind of insight that led to Bezos’s early career switch. Physicist Albert-László Barabási, a Northeastern University-based expert on network theory, examined the careers of scientists and came up with this formula for success: S = Qr.

      Put that back into plain English, and what does it mean? Your level of success in life (or S) is the product of the value of what you choose to work on (that’s r) and what Barabási termed your Q-factor, basically your innate level of skill at that activity. Or, in other words, it’s only when the right person is working in the right area for them that amazing things happen. 
      It couldn’t have been pleasant for Nedoroscik to face the fact that he just didn’t have the chops to be an all-around gymnastics champion, or for Bezos to concede his mind wasn’t built for quantum mechanics. But by redirecting their efforts to the kind of endeavors they did have real talent for, these realizations made both their later accomplishments possible. 
      This column isn’t an argument for any particular path. Some people are meant to be specialists, others generalists; some excel at pommel horse, others at parallel bars. Some will solve the mysteries of particle physics, others will found trillion-dollar companies. 
      There are as many ways to be successful as there are people on the planet. But what holds true for all of us is we’re more likely to reach our dreams if, like both Bezos and Pommel Horse Guy, we’re clear eyed about what we’re really good at and really enjoy, even if it seems initially less glamorous or flattering.

      Dedicating yourself to what you’re suited to with humility and dedication might not guarantee you billions or an Olympic gold medal, but it is your best shot at true success.

      What Do Pommel Horse Guy and Jeff Bezos Have in Common? The Same Secret to Success | Inc.com