Category Archives: Daily Top Ten

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 17, 2024

1. China Biggest Monthly Outflow EVER

China capital markets outflow hits record high in Nov after Trump election win.

From Reuters: China’s capital markets outflow reached a record high of $45.7 billion in November, according to official data tracking cross-border payments, as Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election win roiled global portfolio flows.

Cross-border receipts from portfolio investments were $188.9 billion, while payments totalled $234.6 billion, resulting in the biggest monthly deficit on record, according to data from China’s foreign exchange regulator.

The data release comes as China’s policy-driven stock market rally that started in late September is losing steam, while the yuan has slumped against the dollar in the face of tariff threats from Trump.

The massive deficit, which widened from a $25.8 billion outflow in October, also reflects weakening investor confidence, despite a slew of policies announced by Beijing since late September to stimulate an economy mired in a property crisis, weak consumption and persistent deflation.


2. KWEB-Chinese Internet Stock ETF

Back into sideways pattern…2 years sideways.


3. AAII Sentiment: 50 Weeks of Bulls in 2024, Not Seen Since Late 90’s


4. U.S. Large Cap Still Dominates Inflow


5. Fund Managers Cash Levels


6. Mapped: Crypto Ownership Growth by Region in 2024 ₿

Via Voronoiapp


7. Majority of Investors consider Sports, Gaming, and Music Rights too risky, New Survey Finds

Goldman Sachs recently called sports investing the next trillion-dollar market.

So the answers that 107 institutional investors from around the world gave to a survey this fall are surprising. Nine in 10 said it’s too risky.

They also showed little appetite for two other hot areas — gaming and music rights, which NYT says is being swallowed, and ruined, by private equity. Middle Eastern investors may have this space to themselves.

The report has grim news for the industry: 90% of investors said they’ve received requests from money managers for fund extensions as dealmaking remains slow, and more than two-thirds said they’ve seen funds raise less than what managers had targeted.

Via Semafor


8. Global Coal Supply


9. Annual Income Needed to Buy Home


10. Psychology Today Shares the 5 Things that can Increase Brain Inflammation

Alcohol, diet, and smoke, for starters.

Key points:

  • Brain inflammation may damage our mood, cognition, and general brain health.
  • Diet quality plays a major role in our overall inflammatory state, and may significantly influence brain inflammation.
  • Poor metabolic health, exposure to smoke, and excess alcohol may all negatively impact brain inflammation.

From Psychology Today: When we experience inflammation in our joints, we may have redness, swelling, and pain. If we have inflammation in our skin, we might get an itchy or otherwise annoying rash. But what happens if there is inflammation in our brains?

In recent years, scientists have shown that inflammation in our brains may be a significant contributor to everything from risk for dementias like Alzheimer’s to mood issues like depression to trouble making healthy decisions. That’s a big deal, because these brain issues are major contributors to our quality of life.

Some factors in our lives that contribute to brain inflammation may be unavoidable, and some may have occurred long ago. But there are still several things that we can do to help keep levels of brain inflammation in check. Here are 5 great examples of things worth paying attention to:

1. A low-quality diet.

The food we eat is likely a major contributor to our overall immune state as well as the immune state of our brains. It’s thought that a diet rich in processed food (think added sugar, refined carbohydrates, seed oils, processed meats) may contribute to inflammation in our brains, while a diet rich in leafy greens, nuts, fruits/berries, whole fish/omega-3s, polyphenols, gut-healthy fiber (consider adding some fermented foods for an extra gut-health bonus) as well as flavorful spices like cloves, cinnamon and turmeric may have the opposite effect. For inspiration, check out the Mediterranean diet, which is especially rich in all of these key healthy nutrients.

2. Poor metabolic health.

Research shows that our metabolic health (our body’s ability to extract nutrients from and generate energy from our food) is tightly linked to our immune health, including levels of inflammation. We now know that most of us are likely to be metabolically unhealthy, and that this may have carryover effects for our risk of brain diseases, in part by way of inflammation. Key variables that influence metabolic health include our diet (especially the way our food influences insulin and blood sugar levels), whether or not we get exercise, and even our levels of psychological stress.

Some basic strategies to help improve metabolic health include paying attention to and limiting your added sugar intake, lowering your daily consumption of simple carbohydrates like white bread, pasta, muffins, cakes cookies, and cereal, and engaging in daily movement practices.

3. Exposure to smoke and substances (especially excess alcohol use).

Research shows that exposure to smoke (either because we smoke cigarettes or smoke in air pollution) may increase levels of inflammation in our brains. Similarly, it’s been proposed that exposure to certain drugs may have a damaging effect on our brains by way of the immune system. Though the use of some of these drugs is less common, we likely need to be careful about drinking too much alcohol which may increase inflammation in the brain. It’s still debatable if there really is a “brain safe” level of alcohol consumption.

Some basic steps include getting help quitting smoking (if you smoke), doing your best to reduce exposure to air pollution (check your local AQI) whenever possible—including considering a HEPA filter in your home, and limiting alcohol consumption as viable.

4. Too much weight around our bellies.

Our fat cells are immunologically active cells, and this appears to be especially the case for our belly fat. White fat cells deep in our bellies and around our internal organs are thought to contribute to inflammation in our bodies, which may negatively impact inflammation in our brains. While weight loss is a challenging conversation, some strategies worth considering as it relates to decreasing our belly fat include cutting back on refined carbohydrates and added sugar, as well as limiting alcohol consumption.

5. Chronic stress.

One of the most powerful connections between brain inflammation and what we put into our bodies concerns stress. When we experience chronic stress, which can happen for a wide variety of reasons, it appears to increase inflammatory pathways in the brain. Though some stress may be unavoidable, a few practices worth trying include limiting exposure to stressful news and social media (especially before bed) and trying a stress mitigation technique like mindfulness, time in nature, or breathwork.

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 16, 2024

1. Bitcoin vs. Gold Post Election


2. 9 of 11 S&P Sectors Down Last Week….Equal Weight S&P on 50-Day Again


3. S&P: 9 Consecutive Days of Negative Breadth – More Down Stocks than Up Stocks

Via Bespoke Investment Group


4. Buffet Sitting on Record Cash Position…Stock Sideways Box Since August


5. Software Companies Capex 46% AI

Tomasz Tunguz shares how AI is dominating venture capital software investment.

Via the Abnormal Returns blog


6. Broadcom Hits New Highs: from $160 to $224


7. Sector Comparison-Private Equity vs. Russell 2000 Small Cap

Via Cambridge Associates


8. Fear and Greed Index Neutral…It Feels Otherwise But?

Via CNN Markets


9. China’s “UEL”


10. We are at the Beginning of a Downturn in High School Graduate Population in the U.S.

Via Interstate Passport

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 13, 2024

1. Semiconductor Index 4th Pullback to 200-Day


2. Ethereum Still Did Not Break Out

Long-term chart: 50-week approaching 200-week but no bullish cross yet.


3. Uranium Pullback Still in Box


4. Travel Season Airlines ETF JETS

50-week crossed above 200-week in chart.


5. IWC-Microcap ETF Below Highs but Bullish Cross


6. Back-to-Back 20% S&P Years with Manufacturing PMI in Downtrend

Via Trade Economics


7. Economics vs. Stocks…Never Seen it Work


8. United Healthcare is -18% from Highs

UNH closes below 200-day.


9. The Longest Inverted Yield Curve in History Ending


10. Highest Use by Teens

Via Abnormal Returns

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 12, 2024

1. Growth in S&P vs. Earnings

Via Jack Ablin-Cresset


2. New-Highs for GOOGL


3. Space UFO ETF +41% 6 Months Leading Up to Election


4. Wow! This Might be the Stat of the Year


5. ADBE had NOT Made it Back to Highs Prior to Last Night’s Number


6. IBIT Surpassed $50B Assets in 227 Days

The Daily Shot Brief Cryptocurrency: The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) surpassed $50 billion in assets in just 227 days, achieving this milestone five times faster than the previous record-holder, IEMG, which took 1,323 days. IEFA and VOO reached similar levels in comparable time frames.

Source: @EricBalchunas,@JackiWang17


7. Will 2025 See an IPO Boom?

CNBC reports that Renaissance Capital IPO ETF (IPO), a basket of recent IPOs, is up 22% this year, many of the companies in that ETF are two years old or more. There simply has not been enough IPOs to repopulate it with newer offerings. There are now only 32 holdings in the ETF, with half that were there two years ago.

IPOs: Total raised

  • 2024 YTD: $28.8 billion
  • 2023:  $19.4 billion
  • 2022:  $7.7 billion
  • 2021:  $142 billion (record)
  • 2020:  $78 billion
  • 2019:  $46 billion
  • 2018:  $47 billion
  • 2017:  $35.5 billion

Source: Renaissance Capital

Largest IPOs of 2024 (from IPO price)

  • Reddit – up  364%
  • Astera Labs – up 228%
  • Rubrik – up 112%
  • UL Solutions – up 80%
  • OneStream – up  52%
  • Waystar – up 56%
  • Ibotta – down 15%
  • Ingram Micro – down 1%

8. Increased Use of Employee ChatGPT


9. New Hedge Fund Launches Set to Hit 24-Year Low

Via Reuters: New hedge fund launches will ‘likely’ end the year at their lowest in 24 years amid tough fundraising conditions, hedge fund research firm Preqin said on Wednesday, based on numbers from the first three quarters of this year.

By the third quarter of 2024, hedge fund managers opened 123 new funds, the lowest number since at least 2000 when total launches reached 191, Preqin said. Hedge fund debuts peaked at 697 in 2017, according to its data.


10. Why Are Perfectionists Prone to Depression?

TOPLEY’S TOP 10 December 11, 2024

1. $140B Flows to U.S. Equities November Dwarfs Previous 3 Years

Via The Irrelevant Investor


2. History Of 200 Day Moving Average

Liz Ann Sonders-Schwab:

Via Advisor Perspectives


3. More China Stimulus….But Fresh Lows In Chinese Bond Yields

Via Marketwatch

4. Will South Korea Follow Japan With Stock Market Reforms

Per Bloomberg, South Korea’s oligarchs have held near unchallenged power over almost every aspect of the economy for half a century. They run the biggest companies, command political clout and engineer arcane business deals that enrich themselves, often at the expense of their shareholders.

Now, regulators and investors are fighting back. And the potential ouster of President Yoon Suk Yeol after his short-lived declaration of martial law is likely to supercharge the process.

5. Equal Weight Tech Index Hitting New Highs


6. U.S. Stocks Are At All-Time High In Global Stock Market Cap


7. Germany: A Country Losing Economic Ground


8. The FED Has Shed 43% Of Its Assets Since 2022 QE

Via Wolfstreet


9. U.S. Adults Are Getting Worse At Reading And Math

From Morning Brew: Americans are increasingly flustered by words and numbers, according to a test that measures adult literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving skills in 31 industrialized countries.

The report card revealed an expanding gap between the most and least adept Americans in their ability to handle everyday tasks—from calculating an average to understanding a government email.

See me after class: The 2023 assessment of 4,600 US adults showed:
  • The share of Americans scoring at the lowest level (1 out of 5) or below in literacy rose to 28% from 19% in 2017.
  • And 34% scored at the lowest numeracy level or below, compared to 29% six years prior.

That means that over a quarter of Americans can reliably gauge info only from a simple text, while more than a third might struggle to perform tasks beyond basic arithmetic.

But the decline wasn’t even: The 90th percentile score didn’t drop for literacy and numeracy but the 10th percentile score for both decreased.

The US isn’t alone: Average literacy and numeracy scores dropped in 20 and 11 countries, respectively, which some researchers blame on less reading and more scrolling, though some of it could be due to aging populations and language difficulties stemming from increased immigration. Finland ranked No. 1 in both literacy and numeracy, while sharing first place with Japan in problem-solving.


10. MasterClass Is Introducing AI Mentors, Including A Mark Cuban Chatbot

From Inc.: MasterClass is bringing its famous teachers into the AI arena.

The online learning platform known for its wide variety of celebrity instructors is launching MasterClass On Call, a standalone product that will allow customers to chat with AI-powered duplicates of the platform’s teachers. The cost will be $10 per month or $84 per year. 

MasterClass founder and CEO David Rogier says the company has been experimenting with the concept of AI versions of its instructors since the launch of OpenAI’s GPT-3 in 2022. He sees the technology as the key to unlocking a feature that MasterClass customers have been requesting for years: the ability to ask its celebrity instructors for advice. Big names like Ray Dalio, Richard Branson, and yes, Mark Cuban, have already inked deals to collaborate with MasterClass on these AI personas.

With the rise of generative AI, Rogier says a shift toward on-demand learning is underway. “If I’m negotiating a business deal, I need advice right now,” he says. “I don’t want to sit through an eight-hour class. Just tell me what to do.” 

Subscribers to MasterClass On Call will gain unlimited, on-demand access to a collection of AI personas designed to be artificial mentors. For example, Rogier says that aspiring entrepreneurs could ask Cuban’s AI to help improve a pitch and role-play as a potential investor. Cuban said in a statement that the new product is “going to be an important tool for entrepreneurs and something I’m excited to be a part of.”

In an exclusive demo, Inc. got access to AI versions of sleep expert Matt Walker and Black Swan Group founder and former FBI hostage negotiator Chris Voss, the first two personas currently available in the public beta. The AI voices are remarkably similar to their human counterparts, with natural-sounding cadence and fast response times. When asked for help with a hypothetical salary negotiation, the AI-Voss discussed how to approach the conversation, provided tips on how to strike a balance between confidence and humility, and drafted an initial outreach email. 

Future updates will bring new in-development personas, enable the AI mentors to remember previous conversations, and give users the ability to upload documents (like pitch decks) for the AI instructors to review. 

Creating these AI mentors is no easy feat. MasterClass chief technology officer Mandar Bapaye says that the company links together “an orchestra of multiple AI models” to handle individual components, like providing the mentors’ knowledge base or transforming text into speech. 

The knowledge model is trained on information contained in the mentors’ already-existing MasterClass courses, along with a curated selection of writings and audio recordings. In addition, MasterClass holds extensive interviews with mentors to gather both voice samples and data regarding how they respond to a wide variety of questions. Mentors also give periodic feedback to continuously improve the AI’s performance, like choosing which of two responses to the same question is more accurate to the advice the mentor would actually give. 

When MasterClass began internal tests of On Call, Rogier was surprised by how comfortable people were talking to the AI mentors. Early testers felt more comfortable sharing with the AI because they didn’t feel any judgement or pressure to impress anyone. They were empowered to ask the “dumb questions” they might be embarrassed to ask otherwise, says Rogier. 

MasterClass On Call is now available in beta with access to Voss’s and Walker’s AI personas. More mentors, including fashion designer and Queer Eye style expert Tan France, superstar chef Gordon Ramsay, and legendary feminist writer Gloria Steinem are expected to be added over the coming months.

Take a look at a short video about the new feature here.