1. Margin Debt Has Soared
Key Points-Barrons
- Margin debt increased by 32% to $1.3 trillion over five months through September, a pace suggesting market optimism may be peaking.
- Year-over-year margin debt growth of almost 40% as of September indicates potential risk for investors in high-yield bonds.
- Historically, when margin debt exceeds 40% year-over-year, high-yield spreads have increased by 1.21 percentage points in six months.
Y-Charts 10 Year FINRA margin debt chart—Breakout Above 2021 Levels.
Y-Charts
2. Companies with Negative Earnings Outperforming
Torsten Slok-Apollo
Apollo
3. Altcoin Index Update
Bloomberg
4. Gold and Silver $34B Inflows Ten Weeks
Dave Lutz Jones Trading Gold and silver have attracted a record $34.2 billion in inflows over the past ten weeks, marking the largest surge ever recorded.
Apollo
5. VC Funding for Defense Startups Hits $10B
PitchBook
6. Prof G with Summary of AI Electricity Needs
AI’s Electricity Needs Are Growing Faster Than the Grid Can Handle
Tech companies are racing to build new data centers to handle the surge in AI computing demand. These facilities use massive amounts of electricity — just this year, electricity demand from data centers in the U.S. is estimated to rise 22%.
The problem is that the electrical grid isn’t built for that kind of growth. Power shortages are already delaying data center projects by two to six years. Which raises two questions: Can the U.S. actually produce and deliver enough electricity to sustain this boom — and if it can, who’s paying for it?
Nowhere is that question more extreme than with OpenAI. OpenAI wants to build out a chip network that would consume 250 gigawatts (GW) of energy by 2033. That is equivalent to a fifth of America’s entire electric generation capacity.
- To put that in perspective: If OpenAI had 250 GW of capacity today, it would rank as the seventh-largest country in the world by electricity production capacity — ahead of France, South Korea, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia.
The U.S. added a record 56 GW of new power capacity last year. Even if that pace continued annually, OpenAI’s plan would require the company alone to use more than half of all the new electricity the country adds over the next eight years.
Where would that power come from? Nuclear is the popular talking point, but to generate 250 GW from nuclear alone, you’d need roughly 250 new reactors at an estimated cost of $12.5 trillion. Each one can take 15 years or more to build, so the math and the timeline don’t add up.
Natural gas isn’t a realistic option either, as much as Trump wants it to be. Just 12.5 GW of natural gas capacity is expected to come online this year, one of the biggest additions ever. OpenAI’s target is 20x that.
The obvious answer is solar. Renewable power like solar and onshore wind is the least expensive and quickest power generation source to deploy in the U.S., even without government subsidies. Of the 56 GW of capacity added last year, more than half of it came from solar.
But politics are getting in the way. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act scraps key tax credits and adds new permitting hurdles, including a requirement that new projects be personally approved by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. These changes could cut U.S. solar capacity projections by roughly 20%.
Energy isn’t the only challenge. Local communities are increasingly pushing back against new data centers. About $64 billion worth of projects have been blocked by residents who don’t want them in their communities. Their criticism is simple: These projects raise costs without giving much back.
In major data center hubs, electricity prices have jumped as much as 267% over the past five years, according to Bloomberg. And despite the huge price tags, they don’t create many jobs.
- Apple’s data center in North Carolina was a $1 billion investment, but resulted in fewer than 100 permanent jobs.
For many communities, the math just doesn’t work: higher electricity bills, environmental impacts, and little economic benefit — all to power the infrastructure behind an AI boom that may be running faster than the grid, the economy, or the public can keep up with. https://www.profgmarkets.com/subscribe
7. Crude Oil Heading to 2025 Lows
Koyfin
8. Emerging Market ETF Record Highs
StockCharts
9. 5x Levered ETFS Coming….Levered ETFs 55% have Closed and 17% have Lost 98% of their Value
Business Insider
- An ETF provider has filed for 27 new levered ETFs, including some 5x-levered products.
- Leveraged ETFs are risky; 55% have closed, and 17% have lost over 98% of their value, Morningstar says.
- The SEC’s current shutdown has left a question mark hanging over the approval of the funds.
10. 4 Simple Strategies to Boost Your Brain Power
New research shows how easy (and cheap) it is to get your brain in shape-Psychology Today Susan Krauss Whitbourne
Key points
- Worry about loss of memory and development of a dementing illness can lead people to feel there’s no hope.
- The large and well-controlled study, the U.S. POINTER shows how 4 simple lifestyle changes can pay off.
- Adopting these 4 changes will more than pay off over the years in your physical and mental health.
People worry about losing their memory as they get older, or worse, developing a dementing illness such as Alzheimer’s Disease. It’s hard not to get caught up in a cycle of fear as you read the headlines everywhere proclaiming that this form of dementia is spreading uncontrollably like a wildfire through the aging population.
Even though there are more nuances to the data on dementia’s prevalence, this doesn’t minimize the desire that people have to keep their brains healthy and sharp. Puzzles abound on hundreds of websites and apps, all claiming to provide an antidote to the caving in of your mental skills over time. But can they work?
POINTER: The Latest Demonstration that Training Works
In a newly published paper, Baker et al. (2025) report on POINTER U.S., a two-year intervention program on 2,111 adults considered at risk for cognitive decline and/or dementia. The study compared two training programs into which participants (average age 68 years) were randomly assigned to either a structured or self-guided training. The training itself consisted of a set of lifestyle changes and activities known from previous research to address cognitive decline.
The philosophy of (and prior evidence supporting) POINTER is that cognitive decline in later adulthood need not be inevitable. However, it’s not just a one-and-done. As the authors note in their first, methods-oriented paper (Baker et al., 2024), a “multidomain” approach is needed to “increase cognitive resilience and protect against cognitive decline” (p. 770). POINTER did just that.
Why, and How, Does Training Work?
One of the underlying tenets of POINTER is that cognitive decline occurs in part due to lack of physical fitness; specifically, heart health. Putting this simply, the brain needs blood, and without it, brain cells die. The job of the heart is to provide that blood. When you’re physically fit, you give your heart as much of a chance as possible to do this job.
Physical fitness depends partly on exercise but also, as you might guess, on a healthy diet. It’s becoming increasingly clear in the research community that what you eat does affect your cognitive functioning. The scientifically validated “MIND” diet, or Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay, capitalizes on all of the good things included in the two diets that form its title. You can eat pretty well on a MIND diet, which includes grains, nuts, berries, fish, and veggies, but you also have to watch your intake of cheese, sweets, red meat, and fried foods. Small sacrifice compared to getting heart disease or dementia.
Returning to POINTER, it very simply combined the best of all worlds from exercise and diet in an intervention package that was either delivered in person by training staff or taken home in the form of a self-guided set of activities and programs. Amazingly enough, not only did both interventions work, but the self-guided one just about reached the improvement level of the in-person training, as reported by Baker et al., 2025.
So, what was in the secret sauce that participants could use on their own? Although exact details aren’t available in the study itself, you can see from the structured intervention what its elements should ideally include:
- Adhere to the MIND diet: The MIND website has extensive coverage on the components of this healthy diet. You can also visit Myplate.gov, which provides individualized menus based on your age, health, and preferences.
- Incorporate aerobic and resistance exercise into your day: Now we’re getting real! In the structured group, participants worked out in local gyms with consultation from group leaders. However, the exercises were pretty basic: moderate-to-high intensity and weight-bearing activities such as you might find here.
- Play some cognitive games: The POINTER participants had access to commercially based resources, but you can get similar ones for free just by browsing around online. The key is to maintain a steady intellectual diet and find activities that motivate you, whether word games or visual puzzles. Keep them up, and you’ll soon build an impressive “streak”!
- Reach out to others: Both interventions in POINTER involved some type of interaction with fellow participants or team leaders. Not only can these interactions keep you engaged with others, but they also ensure you stay motivated. Knowing that someone else is monitoring your progress (or even competing with you)can add that extra boost of reinforcement. It only took six meetings for the self-guided intervention to be effective.
Putting POINTER’s Findings to Use for You
As much as the self-guided intervention proved effective in terms of boosting cognitive performance over the two years of the study, the structured group actually did show a significantly greater improvement, but only by a fraction. Ideally, to make the POINTER findings work best, you’d try to find a comprehensive hands-on training opportunity rather than relying on your own ability to put something together. If that’s not an option, build your own program, write it down, and stick to it.
Indeed, as the editor of the prestigious journal in which the study was published (JAMA) noted: “Rather than the difference, the more striking finding is perhaps the similarity of the cognitive benefits across both groups, despite the self-guided group requiring only a fraction of the engagement and interventions.” Not only that, but the self-guided group was cheaper to administer. It can also, the editor argues, be delivered remotely.
One other point worth mentioning is that POINTER worked without any costly “memory” supplements such as those advertised incessantly on broadcast TV and YouTube. You’re only paying for the food you would eat anyhow, or at least healthy versions of that food. You may need to get new sneakers, but everyone needs shoes.
To sum up, there’s no reason to give up on your cognitive abilities just because you don’t feel you have the time or resources. You can change your eating and exercise habits as well as your engagement in games and social interaction without a huge investment. The rewards of preserving your mind and your health will more than pay off in terms of your health and fulfillment.